简介：AbstractBackground:School closure is a common mitigation strategy during severe influenza epidemics and pandemics. However, the effectiveness of this strategy remains controversial. In this study, we aimed to explore the effectiveness of school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics in provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) with varying urbanization rates in China.Methods:This study analyzed influenza surveillance data between 2010 and 2019 provided by the Chinese National Influenza Center. Taking into consideration the climate, this study included a region with 3 adjacent PLADs in Northern China and another region with 4 adjacent PLADs in Southern China. The effect of school closure on influenza transmission was evaluated by the reduction of the effective reproductive number of seasonal influenza during school winter breaks compared with that before school winter breaks. An age-structured Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model was built to model influenza transmission in different levels of urbanization. Parameters were determined using the surveillance data via robust Bayesian method.Results:Between 2010 and 2019, in the less urbanized provinces: Hebei, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Anhui, during school winter breaks, the effective reproductive number of seasonal influenza epidemics reduced 14.6% [95% confidential interval (CI): 6.2-22.9%], 9.6% (95% CI: 2.5-16.6%), 7.3% (95% CI: 0.1-14.4%) and 8.2% (95% CI: 1.1-15.3%) respectively. However, in the highly urbanized cities: Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, it reduced only 5.2% (95% CI: -0.7-11.2%), 4.1% (95% CI: -0.9-9.1%) and 3.9% (95% CI: -1.6-9.4%) respectively. In China, urbanization is associated with decreased proportion of children and increased social contact. According to the SIRS model, both factors could reduce the impact of school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics, and the proportion of children in the population is thought to be the dominant influencing factor.Conclusions:Effectiveness of school closure on the epidemics varies with the age structure in the population and social contact patterns. School closure should be recommended in the low urbanized regions in China in the influenza seasons.

简介：无

简介：

简介：ByusingthedataofSummerandWinter1987,SpringandAutumn1988obtainedbytheR/V"Shijian"duringtheChina-JapanJointResearchProgramonKuroshio,thepapermakesananalysisandresearchonthewatertypedistributionanditsvariationsinthestudiedseaarea.Trieresultsofwhicharemainlyasfollows:(1)TheClassIVmixingwaterwhosepropertyissimilartothatofthecontinentalcoastalwaterislocatedinthenortheastseaarea,alongthecoastofthecontinentinautumnandwinterwhileextendingtotheopenseainspringandsummer.(2)TheboundarybetweentheKuroshiowaterandtheshelfmixingwater(calledtheleftboundaryoftheKroshiowater)isapproximatelylocatedinbetweenthe100mand200misobathsinvariousseasonsandvariouslayers,andmostlynearthe200misobath.IntheseaareanortheastofTaiwan,theKuroshiowateristothewestmostinspringandtheninwinter.Insummer,itistotheeastmostwhile,inautumn,itisinbetweenitspositionsinsummeran

简介：AbstractBackground:Understanding the global spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza is essential for influenza control and prevention. Available data on the updated global spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza are scarce. This study aimed to assess the spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza after the 2009 influenza pandemic.Methods:Weekly influenza surveillance data in 86 countries from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from FluNet. First, the proportion of influenza A in total influenza viruses (PA) was calculated. Second, weekly numbers of influenza positive virus (A and B) were divided by the total number of samples processed to get weekly positive rates of influenza A (RWA) and influenza B (RWB). Third, the average positive rates of influenza A (RA) and influenza B (RB) for each country were calculated by averaging RWA, and RWB of 52 weeks. A Kruskal-Wallis test was conducted to examine if the year-to-year change in PA in all countries were significant, and a universal kriging method with linear semivariogram model was used to extrapolate RA and RB in all countries.Results:PA ranged from 0.43 in Zambia to 0.98 in Belarus, and PA in countries with higher income was greater than those countries with lower income. The spatial patterns of high RB were the highest in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia-Pacific region and South America. RWA peaked in early weeks in temperate countries, and the peak of RWB occurred a bit later. There were some temperate countries with non-distinct influenza seasonality (e.g., Mauritius and Maldives) and some tropical/subtropical countries with distinct influenza seasonality (e.g., Chile and South Africa).Conclusions:Influenza seasonality is not predictable in some temperate countries, and it is distinct in Chile, Argentina and South Africa, implying that the optimal timing for influenza vaccination needs to be chosen with caution in these unpredictable countries.

简介：WiththeERA40reanalysisdailydatafor1958-2001,theglobalatmosphericseasonal-meandiabaticheatingandtransientheatingarecomputedbyusingtheresidualdiagnosisofthethermodynamicequation.Thethree-dimensionalstructuresforthetwotypesofheatingaredescribedandcompared.Itisdemonstratedthatthediabaticheatingisbasicallycharacterizedbystronganddeepconvectiveheatinginthetropics,shallowheatinginthemidlatitudesanddeepcoolinginthesubtropicsandhigh-latitudes.Thetropicaldiabaticheatingalwaysshiftstowardsthesummerhemisphere,butthemidlatitudeheatingandhigh-latitudecoolingtendtobestronginthewinterhemisphere.Ontheotherhand,thetransientheatingduetotransienteddytransferischaracterizedbyameridionaldipolepatternwithcoolinginthesubtropicsandheatinginthemid-andhigh-latitudes,aswellasbyaverticaldipolepatterninthemidlatitudeswithcoolingatlowerlevelsandheatinginthemid-andhigher-levels,whichgivesrisetoaslopedstructureinthetransientheatingorientedfromthelowerlevelsinthehighlatitudesandhigherlevelsinthemidlatitudes.Thetransientheatingiscloselyrelatedtoastormtrackalongwhichthetransienteddyactivityismuchstrongerinthewinterhemispherethaninthesummerhemisphere.InNorthernHemisphere,thetransientheatinglocatesinthewesternoceanicbasin,whileitiszonally-orientedinSouthernHemisphere,forwhichthetransientheatingandcoolingarefarseparatedoverSouthPacificduringthecoldseason.Thetransientheatingtendstocancelthediabaticheatingovermostoftheglobe.However,itdominatesthemid-troposphericheatinginthemidlatitudes.Therefore,theatmospherictransientprocessesacttohelptheatmospheregainmoreheatinthehigh-latitudesandinthemid-troposphereofmidlatitudes,reallocatingtheatmosphericheatobtainedfromthediabaticheating.

简介：在土壤的磷(P)在沼泽地的发展和生产率有重要影响。这研究的目的是在Yeyahu沼泽地的土壤调查分发，bioavailability和无机的磷(IP)的季节的变化。结果证明尽管有季节，Ca固定的P(帽子)的集中在所有IP部分仍然是主要出现，同时尽管有季节，Al固定的P(高山)总是是最低IP部分。集中是的高山和Fe固定的P(Fe-P)都在5月到达了最高的价值并且在11月最低，它对堵塞P(Oc-P)部分相反。在在这研究观察的11月的著名更高的Oc-P集中可能由于植物并且随后氧化物释放到土壤的分解。帽子没与季节变化改变大部分。可交换的P(终止)和Oc-P都断然与土壤潮湿内容和有机物内容被相关，但是高山否定地与这二个土壤性质被相关。作为一种稳定的形式，帽子没与土壤性质被联系。高山，Fe-P和帽子可能与原则部件分析结果在学习沼泽地贡献P的存储。在土壤的简历可得到的P的集中等级顺序通常如下：Olsen-P>海藻的可得到的P(AAP)>浇可溶的P(WSP)>乐意地使放出的P(RDP)。Olsen-P断然与终止和Oc-P被相关，并且是为在土壤的简历可得到的P的更合适的指示物被认为。

简介：ＡＤＶＡＮＣＥＳＩＮＴＨＥＭＯＮＴＨＬＹ，ＳＥＡＳＯＮＡＬＡＮＤＹＥＡＲＬＹＬＯＮＧ－ＲＡＮＧＥＮＵＭＥＲＩＣＡＬＷＥＡＴＨＥＲＰＲＥＤＩＣＴＩＯＮ￥ＺｈｅｎｇＱｉｎｇｌｉｎ（郑关林）ＡＤＶＡＮＣＥＳＩＮＴＨＥＭＯＮＴＨＬＹ，ＳＥＡＳＯＮＡＬＡＮＤＹ...

简介：根据为系统(ROMS)建模的地区性的海洋，在华南海(SCS)的thermocline的季节的变化数字地被调查。模仿的水动力学根据以前的研究：在SCS的发行量模式在冬季是气旋的并且在夏天，和如此的一个变化逆旋风被季风风主要驾驶。在巡航获得的建模的温度侧面和观察之间的错误在海洋的上面的层是相当小的，显示海洋地位相当被模仿。根据垂直温度侧面的形状，五种thermocline类型(浅thermocline，深thermocline，混合thermocline，两倍thermocline，和多重thermocline)此处被定义。在冬季，什么时候在东北，季风占优势，在SCS的西北的很浅的架海很好被混合，并且没有明显的thermocline。深区域通常有深thermocline，并且混合或双的thermocline经常在SCS的南方在冷旋涡附近发生在区域。在夏天，当西南的季风占优势时，有浅thermocline的架海区域极大地膨胀。不同thermocline类型的分发与海洋深测术显示出一种关系：从对深水浅，thermocline类型通常变化从对浅或混合深，thermocline，和双或多重的thermocline通常发生在陡峭的区域。三个主要thermocline特征(上面的界限深度，厚度，和紧张)的季节的变化也被讨论。因为SCS也是热带气旋经常发生的一个区域，到在短时间规模的一个台风过程的thermocline的反应也被分析。

简介：许多研究在过去的100年在世界并且在不同季节期间的不同区域在表面气候为重要变化显示出证据。在中国从720个气候车站把温度和降水数据基于每天，聚合分析被用来在在1971-2000气候正常时期期间在温度和降水的季节的周期经历了类似的变化的中国识别区域。在日平均值温度和全部的降水在之间的11天的一般水准的差别第一(1971-1985)并且记录的秒(1986-2000)一半用Mann-WhitneyU测试和聚类算法的全球κ-工具被分析。结果证明中国的大多数部分在在二个时期之间的温度经历了重要增加，特别在冬季，尽管这温暖的一些可能对大城市里的城市的热岛效果可归因。大多数西方的中国在1986-2000经历了更多的降水，当降水在黄河山谷减少了时。在夏季风的变化也是明显的，与在在发作和腐烂阶段期间的降水的减少，并且在最湿的时期期间增加。

简介：在雪坑的重金属Ba，Pb，Cu，Zn和公司的集中从累积区域在2005年9月收集了东方Rongbuk冰河(6523ma.s.l)躺在科莫朗马山的北斜坡上，诱导地旁边是坚定的co

简介：在19802013期间基于海水平，空气温度，海表面温度(SST)，空气压力和风数据的分析，在华东海(ECS)的沿海的区域的季节的海水平异例的原因被调查。研究结果出现：(1)沿着ECS的沿海的区域的海水平呈现强壮的季节的变化。年度范围是3045厘米，在北方更大比在南方。从北方到南方，海水平的阶段从140变化

简介：从在预言在在6月的华南(SC)的车站规模降雨被评估的亚太经济合作(APEC)气候中心(APCC)多模型整体(MME)的各种各样的动态模型的表演。模型hindcasts的MME平均数能熟练地预言在SC领域上平均的6月降雨异例，这被发现。这能与在在Indo和平的区域捕获在SC降雨和大气的大规模发行量异例之间的观察连接的MME能力有关。对基于直接模型输出(DMO)，超过97在SC驻扎的车站规模6月降雨预言的另外的评价表明MME平均数超过每个单个模型。然而，在某内陆的差的预言能力和东南的SC车站在MME平均数并且在很多个模型是明显的。以便与差的DMO预言技巧在那些车站改进表演，一个基于车站的统计downscaling计划被构造并且适用于个人和MME吝啬的hindcast跑。为几个模型，这个计划能在超过30个车站超过DMO，因为它能在捕获SC降雨更加敏感的异常Indo和平的对发行量拍进模型的能力。因此，提高了在这些模型的预言能力应该使他们成为的降雨为灾难有准备和缓解目的更有用。

简介：在1998和1999在Bohai海基于中国德语的全面调查的实验数据，一个简单联合pelagic-benthic生态系统多盒子模型被用来模仿生态系统季节变异。远洋的亚模型由七个州的变量组成：浮游植物，浮游动物，锡，尖端，文档，停靠港和溶解的氧()。benthicsub模型在沉积包括宏底生生物，meiobenthos，细菌，岩屑，听和尖端。除从海底部渗出的太阳辐射，水温和营养素的效果以外，以地为基地的输入被考虑。在盒子之间的移流术语的影响也被考虑。同时，micro-bial-loop的效果与simpleparameterization被介绍。季节变异和生态系统的水平分布声明Bohai海的变量被模仿。与观察相比，themulti盒子模型的结果是合理的。建模的结果证明大约13%光合作用初级生产量去主要食物环，20%转到benthic领域，44%被浮游植物的呼吸消费，并且剩余的去文档。模型结果也在Bohai海，和它对年度浮游动物生产的贡献的生态系统显示出微生物引起的食物环的重要性能是60%-64%。

简介：WeusetheU.S.Navy'sMasterOceanographicObservationDataSet(MOODS)fortheYellowSea/EastChinaSea(YES)toinvestigatetheclimatologicalwatermassfeaturesandtheseasonalandnon-seasonalvariabilitiesofthethermohalinestructure,andusetheComprehensiveOcean-AtmosphereDataSet(COADS)from1945to1989toinvestigatethelinkagebetweenthefluxes(momentum,heat,andmoisture)acrosstheair-oceaninterfaceandtheformationofthewatermassfeatures.Afterexaminingthemajorcurrentsystemsandconsideringthelocalbathymetryandwatermassproperties,wedivideYESintofiveregions:EastChinaSea(ECS)shelf,YellowSea(YS)Basin,Chejubifurcation(CB)zone,TaiwanWarmCurrent(TWC)region,KuroshioCurrent(KG)region.Thelongtermmeansurfaceheatbalancecorrespondstoaheatlossof30Wm-2intheESCandCBregions,aheatlossof65Wm-2intheKGandTWCregions,andaheatgainof15Wm-2intheYSregion.Thesurfacefreshwaterbalanceisdefinedbyprecipitationminusevaporation.Theannualwaterlossfromthesurfaceforthefivesubareasrangesfrom1.8to4cmmonth-1.Thefreshwaterlossfromthesurfaceshouldbecompensatedforfromtheriverrun-off.Theentirewatercolumnoftheshelfregion(ECS,YS,andCB)undergoesanevidentseasonalthermalcyclewithmaximumvaluesoftemperatureduringsummerandmaximummixedlayerdepthsduringwinter.However,onlythesurfacewatersoftheTWCandKGregionsexhibitaseasonalthermalcycle.WealsofoundtwodifferentrelationsbetweensurfacesalinityandtheYangtzeRiverrun-off,namely,out-of-phaseintheEastChinaSeashelfandin-phaseintheYellowSea.ThismayconfirmanearlierstudythatthesummerfreshwaterdischargefromtheYangtzeRiverformsarelativelyshallow,lowsalinityplume-likestructureextendingoffshoreonaveragetowardsthenortheast.

简介：根据在估计内部独居的波浪(ISW)在圆柱的堆积上施加的力量和转矩的Morisons实验公式和形式的分离方法，负担甚至在ISW的振幅是一样的条件下面在华南海(SCS)在大陆人架的一样的地点主要在不同季节由ISW变化施加了，这被发现。因此，ISW施加的力量和转矩上的一个季节的水层化变化的效果被调查，并且一个三参数的层化模特儿被雇用。ISW施加的负担主要取决于水层化，这被显示出。越强壮水层化，越larger力量和转矩；当最大的thermocline出现的深度被加深时，力量减少，但是转矩增加；当thermocline的宽度被缩小时，力量增加，但是转矩减少。ISW在SCS在四个季节施加的力量和转矩的季节的变化因此被解释。

简介：根据在2009的冬季和夏天的CTD数据和当模特儿的结果，在西方的华东海架区域的水群众的季节的特征用一个簇分析方法被分析。结果证明在学习区域的水群众的分布和温度咸度特征具有不同季节的差别。在西方的华东海架区域，在冬季期间有三水群众，即，沿海的水(CCW)，台湾温暖的当前的表面水(TWCSW)和混合的黄海浇的大陆人(YSMW)，而是四在夏天期间，即，CCW，TWCSW，台湾温暖的当前的深水(TWCDW)和YSMW。都所有，CCW，TWCSW和TWCDW中是主导的水群众。CCW，首先由低咸度描绘了，在冬季有更低的温度，更高的咸度和更小的空间程度比在里面夏天。TWCSW在比在冬季的夏天更温暖、更新鲜、更小，并且它在冬季期间从台湾海峡水台湾，中国和更少向东北主要从自台湾东面的菲律宾海流向日本的暖流表面水(KSW)发源，但是它在夏天期间由海峡水和KSW组成。TWCDW被低温度和高咸度描绘，并且台湾向东北在自台湾东面的菲律宾海流向日本的暖流表面下的水里完全发源。

简介：PrecipitationradardataderivedfromtheTropicalRainfallMeasuringMission(TRMM)satelliteareusedtostudyprecipitationcharacteristicsin1998overEastAsia(10°-38°N,100°-145°E),especiallyovermid-latitudeland(continentalland)andocean(EastChinaSeaandSouthChinaSea).Resultsarecomparedwithprecipitationsinthetropics.YearlystatisticsshowdominantstratiformraineventsoverEastAsia(about83.7%byareafraction)contributingto50%ofthetotalprecipitation.Deepconvectiverainscontribute48%tothetotalprecipitationwitha13.7%areafraction.ThestatisticsalsoshowtheunimportanceofwarmconvectiveraininEastAsia,contributing1.5%tothetotalprecipitationwitha2.7%areafraction.Onaseasonalscale,theresultsindicatethattherainfallratioofstratiformraintodeepconvectiverainisproportionaltotheirrainfallpixelratio.SeasonalprecipitationpatternscomparewellbetweenGlobalPrecipitationClimatologyProjectrainfallandTRMMPRmeasurementsexceptinsummer.StudiesindicateaclearoppositeshiftofrainfallamountandeventsbetweendeepconvectiveandstratiformrainsinthemeridionalinEastAsia,whichcorrespondstothealternativeactivitiesofsummermonsoonandwintermonsoonintheregion.TheverticalstructuresofprecipitationalsoexhibitstrongseasonalvariabilityinprecipitationContouredRainratebyAltitudeDiagrams(CRADs)andmeanprofilesinthemid-latitudesofEastAsia.However,thesestructuresintheSouthChinaSeaareofatropicaltypeexceptinwinter.TheanalysisofCRADsrevealsawiderangeofsurfacerainfallratesformostdeepconvectiverains,especiallyinthecontinentalland,andlightrainrateformoststratiformrainsinEastAsia,regardlessofoverlandorocean.

简介：Inthispaper,thenumericalexperimentsontheissueofspin-uptimeforseasonal-scaleregionalclimatemodelingwereconductedwiththenewlyRegionalClimateModel(RegCM3),inthecaseoftheabnormalclimateeventduringthesummerof1998inChina.Totesttheeffectofspin-uptimeontheregionalclimatesimulationresultsforsuchabnormalclimateevent,atotalof11experimentswereperformedwithdifferentspin-uptimefrom10daysto6months,respectively.Thesimulationresultsshowthat,forthemeteorologicalvariablesintheatmosphere,themodelwouldberunningin'climatemode'after4-8-dayspin-uptime,then,itisindependentofthespin-uptimebasically,andthesimulationerrorsaremainlycausedbythemodel'sfailureindescribingtheatmosphericprocessesoverthemodeldomain.Thisverifiesagainthattheregionalclimatemodelingisindeedalateralboundaryconditionproblemasdemonstratedbyearlierresearchwork.Thesimulatedmeanprecipitationrateovereachsubregionisnotsensitivetothespin-uptime,buttheprecipitationscenarioissomewhatdifferentfortheexperimentwithdifferentspin-uptime,whichshowsthatthereexiststheuncertaintyinthesimulationtoprecipitationscenario,andsuchauncertaintyexhibitsmoreovertheareaswhereheavyrainfallhappened.Generally,formonthly-scaleprecipitationsimulation,aspin-uptimeof1monthisenough,whereasaspin-uptimeof2monthsisbetterforseasonal-scaleone.Furthermore,therelationshipbetweentheprecipitationsimulationerrorandtheadvancement/withdrawalofEastAsiansummermonsoonwasanalyzed.Itisfoundthatthevariabilityofcorrelationcoefficientforprecipitationismoresignificantovertheareaswherethesummermonsoonispredominant.Therefore,themodel'scapabilityinreproducingprecipitationfeaturesisrelatedtotheheavyrainfallprocessesassociatedwiththeadvancement/withdrawalofEastAsiansummermonsoon,whichsuggeststhatitisnecessarytodevelopamorereliableparameterizationsch

简介：