简介:桥梁监测序列是典型的非平稳时间序列,需要进行一些处理将非平稳序列平稳化后再拟合ARMA模型。将监测数据平稳化后将因变量仅对它的滞后值以及随机误差项的现值和滞后值进行回归所建立的模型即为ARIMA模型。以玉峰大桥为例,介绍了季节ARIMA模型的建模思路与总体流程,模拟了检测序列的变化趋势。以季节ARIMA模型为预测模型作为结构的退化模型,对测点进行退化趋势模拟与退化临界时刻预测。结果显示ARIMA模型对序列的拟合效果良好,可以用于桥梁监测序列的预测,其对退化临界时刻的预测可以从整体上掌握桥梁的整体退化趋势和极限使用寿命。
简介:Themostcriticalissueinthesteelcatenaryriserdesignistoevaluatethefatiguedamageinthetouchdownzoneaccurately.Appropriatemodelingoftheriser-soilresistanceinthetouchdownzonecanleadtosignificantcostreductionbyoptimizingdesign.Thispaperpresentsaplasticitymodelthatcanbeappliedtonumericallysimulateriser-soilinteractionandevaluatedynamicresponsesandthefatiguedamageofasteelcatenaryriserinthetouchdownzone.Utilizingthemodel,numerousriser-soilelementsareattachedtothesteelcatenaryriserfiniteelements,inwhicheachsimulateslocalfoundationrestraintalongtherisertouchdownzone.Theriser-soilinteractionplasticitymodelaccountsforthebehaviorwithinanallowablecombinedloadingsurface.Themodelwillberepresentedinthispaper,allowingsimplenumericalimplementation.Moreimportantly,itcanbeincorporatedwithinthestructuralanalysisofasteelcatenaryriserwiththefiniteelementmethod.Theapplicabilityofthemodelisinterpretedtheoreticallyandtheresultsareshownthroughapplicationtoanoffshore8.625″steelcatenaryriserexample.Thefatigueanalysisresultsofthelinerelasticriser-soilmodelarealsoshown.Accordingtothecomparisonresultsofthetwomodels,thefatiguelifeanalysisresultsoftheplasticityframeworkarereasonableandthehorizontaleffectsoftheriser-soilinteractioncanbeincluded.
简介:Thescaleeffectleadstolargediscrepanciesbetweenthewakefieldsofmodel-scaleandactualships,andcausesdifferencesincavitationperformanceandexcitingforcestestsinpredictingtheperformanceofactualships.Therefore,whentestdatafromshipmodelsaredirectlyappliedtopredicttheperformanceofactualships,testresultsmustbesubjectedtoempiricalcorrections.Thisstudyproposesamethodforthereversedesignofthehullmodel.Comparedtoageometricallysimilarhullmodel,thewakefieldgeneratedbythemodifiedmodelisclosertothatofanactualship.Anon-geometricallysimilarmodelofaKoreanResearchInstituteofShipandOceanEngineering(KRISO)’scontainership(KCS)wasdesigned.Numericalsimulationswereperformedusingthismodel,anditsresultswerecomparedwithfull-scalecalculationresults.Thedeformationmethodofgettingthewakefieldoffull-scaleshipsbythenon-geometricallysimilarmodelisappliedtotheKCSsuccessfully.