简介：ThisstudyaimstoinvestigatetheeffectoftheimpactmechanismofclimatechangeonthelivestockproductionatsmallwatershedlevelandcountylevelwiththeMulti-levelModel(MLM)inQinghaiProvince.Theresultindicatedthatthegrosslivestockoutputvaluewasgreatlyinfluencedbytheclimaticfactorsofthesmallwatershedlevel.Highertemperaturepromotedalsobytheincreaseofprecipitation,relativehumidityandsunshinedurationwasfoundtobebeneficialtothedevelopmentoflivestockproduction,exceptinsomeareaswheretemperatureriserestrainedthedevelopmentoflocallivestockproductiontosomedegreewhenexceedingacertainlevel;besides,theimpactofthesocioeconomicfactorsonthelivestockoutputvalueisobviousatthecountylevel.ThegrosseconomicoutputmeasuredwithGDPhassomeinhibitoryeffectsonthereinvestmentoflivestockproduction,whilepopulationgrowthpromotesdevelopmentoflivestockproductiontosomedegree.TheresultsnotonlyprovidescientificbasisforthemanagementoflivestockproductioninQinghaiProvince,butalsoprovidereferenceforformulatingthepoliciesandadaptationmeasurestargetedatclimatechangetopromotethesustainabledevelopmentoflivestockproductioninotherregions.

简介：Aregionalclimatemodelisemployedtosimulatetheaerosols(dust,sulfate,blackcarbon,andorganiccarbon)andtheirdirecteffectontheclimateoverChina.Theemphasisisonthedirectradiativeforcingduetothechangeinmixingstateofaerosols.Theresultsshowthatdirectradiativeforcingissignificantlydifferentbetweenexternallyandinternallymixedaerosols.Atthetopoftheatmosphere(TOA),theradiativeforcingofexternallymixedaerosolsislargerthanthatofinternallymixedones,especiallyintheTarimdesertregionwherethedifferenceisabout0.7Wm2.Atthesurface,however,thesituationbecomesopposite,especiallyintheSichuanbasinwherethedifferenceisabout-1.4Wm2.Nonetheless,eitherexternallyorinternallymixedaerosolsinChinacanresultinasignificantcoolingeffect,exceptforthewarminginSouthChinainwinterandtheslightwarminginNorthChinainFebruary.Thecoolingeffectinducedbyexternallymixedaerosolsisweakerthanthatinducedbyinternallymixedaerosols,andthisismoreobviousinspringandwinterthaninsummerandautumn.Inspringandsummer,theinhibitingeffectofexternallymixedaerosolsonprecipitationislessthanthatofinternallymixedaerosols,whereasinautumnandwinterthedifferenceisnotobvious.

简介：Recentstudiesindicatedthatexceptfortheland-seathermalcontrast,therealsoexistedtheland-landthermalcontrast.Thecompositeanalysisandt-testmethodareusedtofurtherstudythelocalthermalcontrastvariationovertheAsiancontinent,andtodiscusstheassociationofseasonalvariationoflandthermalstatewithcirculationoverEastAsia,theearlysummerandsummermonsoonactivity,andtheprecipitationanomalyinChinainthedecadalscale.Resultsshowthatthepositivemeridionaltemperatureanomalytransportsdownwardfromuppertroposphericlayersinmiddle-highlatitudesnorthof25°Ninthepositiveyears.Inthezonaldirection,theTibetanPlateauheatinginthesuccessivespringactsasaforcetoinfluencetheatmosphere,leadingtotherapidtemperaturewarmingovereasternChinesecontinent,whichcouldincreasetheland-seathermalcontrastwiththenegativeSSTA.Accordingly,themonsoonactivityinearlysummeroverEastAsianestablishesearlierandthesummermonsoonintensitybecomesstronger.Theearlysummerprecipitationismore-than-normalovertheYangtzeRiver,andthesummerprecipitationismore-than-normaloverthenorthChinaandthesouthwestChina.Thesituationiscontraryinthenegativeyears.

简介：Climatechangecharacterizedbyincreasingtemperatureisabletoaffectprecipitationregimeandthussurfacehydrology.However,themannerinwhichriversedimentloadsrespondtoclimatechangeisnotwellunderstood,andrelatedassessmentregardingtheeffectofclimatechangeonsedimentloadsislacking.Wepresentaquantitativeestimateofchangesinsedimentloads(from1.5Gtyr~(-1)pre-1990to0.6Gtyr~(-1)from1991-2007)inresponsetoclimatechangeineightlargeChineserivers.Overthepastdecades,precipitationchangecoupledwithrisingtemperatureshasplayedasignificantroleininfluencingthesedimentdeliverydynamics,althoughhumanactivities,suchasreservoirconstruction,waterdiversion,sandminingandlandcoverchange,arestillthepredominantforces.Lowerprecipitationcoupledwithrisingtemperatureshassignificantlyreducedsedimentloadsdeliveredintotheseainsemi-aridclimates(4-61%).Incontrast,increasinglywarmerandwetterclimatesinsubtropicalzoneshasyieldedmoresediment(0.4-11%),althoughtheincreasewasoffsetbyhumanimpact.Ourresultsindicatethat,comparedwithmechanicalretentionbyreservoirs,waterreductioncausedbyclimatechangeorhumanwithdrawalshascontributedmoresedimentreductionfortheriverswithabundantsedimentsupplybutlimitedtransportcapacity(e.g.,theHuanghe).Furthermore,ourresultsindicatethatevery1%changeinprecipitationhasresultedina1.3%changeinwaterdischargeanda2%changeinsedimentloads.Inaddition,every1%changeinwaterdischargecausedbyprecipitationhasledtoa1.6%changeinsedimentloads,butthesamepercentageofwaterdischargechangecausedlargelybyhumanswouldonlyresultina0.9%changeinsedimentloads.Thesefigurescanbeusedasaguidelineforevaluatingtheresponsesofsedimentloadstoclimatechangeinsimilarclimatezonesbecausefutureglobalwarmingwillcausedramaticchangesinwaterandsedimentinriverbasinsworldwideatratespreviouslyunseen.

简介：BasedonthesimulationwiththeOcean-AtmosphereCoupledModelCCSMandOceanModelPOPunderthegreenhousegasemissionscenariooftheIPCCSRESA2(IPCC,2001),andontheearthcrustsubsidenceandglaciermeltingdata,therelativesealevelchangeisobtainedalongthecoastofChinainthe21stcentury.UsingtheSRTMelevationdatathesubmergenceofcoastallowlandiscalculatedundertheextremewaterlevelwitha100-yearreturnperiod.Thetotalfloodingareasare98.3×103and104.9×103km2for2050and2080,respectively.Forthethreeregionsmostvulnerabletoextremesealevelrise,i.e.,thecoastofBohaiBay,theYangtzeRiverDeltatogetherwithneighboringJiangsuProvinceandnorthernZhejiangProvince,andthePearlRiverDelta,thefloodedareasare5.0×103,64.1×103and15.3×103km2in2050and5.2×103,67.8×103and17.2×103km2in2080,respectively.

简介：Climatechangehasbecomewidelyacceptedasachallengethathumanswillfaceinthenot-too-distantfuture.Mountainecosystemsandtheirinhabitantsareamongthemostvulnerabletoclimatechange.ThispaperseekstoexplainmigrationdriversinspecificmountainregionsinthecontextofclimatechangebasedonForesight’sconceptualframework.AclimatechangesensitivefieldnamedShangnanCountyinsouthernShaanxiProvinceischosenasthecasestudyareatoinvestigatelocalmigrationdrivers.Aseriesofqualitativeresearchmethodsisemployedinthecasestudyincludingparticipantobservation,semi-structuredinterviews,andfocusgroupdiscussions.Theevidenceofsurveysuggeststhatmigrationdecisionsarenotonlyshapedbymacrofactorsinaspectsofenvironmental,economics,demographic,social,politicsandpsychological,butalsoinfluencedbyplaced-relatedbarriersandfacilitatingmechanismsandpersonalcharacteristics.

简介：Thehumificationdegreeofpeatisasignificantclimaticproxyforpaleoclimatechange.Usingthealkali-extractionmethod,atimeseriesofabsorbancevaluesoftheHanipeatland,NortheastChina,wasdetermined,whichisusedasanindicatorforthehumificationdegreeofpeat.Combinedwith14Cdatingdataofpeatcellulose,andcomparedwithδ18Oandδ13CtimeseriesofthecelluloseintheHanipeatland,theevidencefortheexistenceof14kapaleoclimatewasprovided.Higherhumificationdegreeshintawarmer-wetterclimate,andviceversa.ItalsoreconstructsthefourstagesofHoloceneclimateevolutioninthisregion:11.5–9.8calkaB.P.,warmandwetperiod;9.8–9.0calkaB.P.,coldanddryperiod;9.0–4.8calkaB.P.,warmandwetperiod;and4.8–0calkaB.P.,warm-wetanddry-coldalternationperiod.Meanwhile,itisrevealedthattheabruptclimateshiftssignalssuchasthe'8.2ka'eventandthe'4.2ka'event.ResultsshowedthattheHanipeathumificationdegreeisofsensitiveresponsetopaleoclimatechange.Therefore,itisafeasiblemethodtoanalyzetherelationshipbetweenpaleoclimatechangeandpeathumificationdegree.

简介：Usingtheregionalair-seacoupledclimatemodelRegCM3-POM,aseriesofnumericalexperimentsareperformedtosimulatethesummerclimatein1997and1998withdifferentcouplingtimesteps.Theresultsshowthatthecoupledmodelhasgoodperformanceonthesimulationofthesummerseasurfacetemperature(SST)in1997and1998,andthesimulationresultsofCPL1(withthecouplingtimestepat1hour)aresimilartothoseofCPL6(withthecouplingtimestepat6hours).ThecoupledmodelcanwellsimulateSSTdifferencesbetween1997and1998.Asforthesimulationofthedroughtin1997andthefloodin1998,theresultsofCPL6aremoreaccurate.Thecoupledmodelcanwellsimulatethedroughtin1997overNorthChina,andcomparedwiththeresultsoftheatmospheremodelRegCM3,thesimulationabilityofthecoupledmodelisimproved.Thecouplingmodelhasbetterabilityinthesimulationofthecirculationinthemiddleandlowlevels,andthewatervaportransportationinthecouplingmodelisreasonableinboth1997and1998.RegCM3(anuncoupledmodel)cannotcorrectlysimulatethetransportationpathdifferencesbetween1997and1998,butthecoupledmodelcansimulatethedifferenceswell.

简介：为了改进气候地下水相互作用，一个地下水部件和新surface/subsurface流量的数字建模的能力，计划被合并到地区性的气候模型RegCM3，重命名的RegCM3_Hydro。从两个模型的20年的模拟被用来在中国在七河盆上在地区性的气候上调查地下水动力学和surface/subsurface流量parameterizations的效果。结果的比较证明RegCM3_Hydro减少了积极偏爱年度并且夏天(6月，7月，8月)在六河盆上的降水，当它稍微在东方中国在Huaihe河盆上增加了偏爱时。RegCM3_Hydro也越过年从RegCM3减少了表面空气温度的冷偏爱，特别为Haihe和Huaihe河盆，与0.80的重要偏爱减小

简介：落后海表面温度异例(SSTA)的关联，海表面高度异例(SSHA)，表面下的温度异例，和带的风异例(SZWA)由灵活全球Ocean-Atmosphere-Land系统生产了的表面当模特儿：(FGOALS-g2)格子点版本2被分析并且与观察相比。不足道，虽然积极，落后在在在秋天的东南的热带印度洋(STIO)的SSTA之间的关联和在中央东方的和平的寒冷的SSTA整个秋天在下列夏天舔被发现不与观察分析一致。然而，模型确实复制重要落后在在在在在一个年时间的冷舌头的秋天和那些的STIO的SSHA之间的关联在观察落后。这些，与一起重要落后在在在秋天的STIO和在下列年里的赤道的和平的垂直的节的表面下的温度异例的SSTA之间的关联，建议印度尼西亚的Throughflow在宣传印度洋异例进赤道的太平洋起一个重要作用。印度尼西亚的Throughflow运输的interannual异例的分析建议FGOALS-g2气候系统模仿，但是低估在印第安人和太平洋之间的海洋的隧道动力学。FGOALS-g2被显示生产落后在在在在一个年时间的秋天和冷舌头SSTA的西方的赤道的太平洋上的SZWA之间的关联落后那太强壮，不能与观察比较现实主义。分析建议在Indo和平的海洋上的大气的桥牌在FGOALS-g2被过高估计联合气候模型。

简介：为IPCC-AR5(第五份评价报告)基于近期的气候模拟，在东亚的表面空气温度的十的可变性的概率的multimodel整体预言(PMME)(20????吗？