简介：Climatevariabilitymodes,usuallyknownasprimaryclimatephenomena,arewellrecognizedasthemostimportantpredictabilitysourcesinsubseasonal–interannualclimateprediction.Thispaperbeginsbyreviewingtheresearchanddevelopmentcarriedout,andtherecentprogressmade,attheBeijingClimateCenter(BCC)inpredictingsomeprimaryclimatevariabilitymodes.TheseincludetheElNi?o–SouthernOscillation(ENSO),Madden–JulianOscillation(MJO),andArcticOscillation(AO),onglobalscales,aswellastheseasurfacetemperature(SST)modesintheIndianOceanandNorthAtlantic,westernPacificsubtropicalhigh(WPSH),andtheEastAsianwinterandsummermonsoons(EAWMandEASM,respectively),onregionalscales.Basedonitslatestclimateandstatisticalmodels,theBCChasestablishedaclimatephenomenonpredictionsystem(CPPS)andcompletedahindcastexperimentfortheperiod1991–2014.TheperformanceoftheCPPSinpredictingsuchclimatevariabilitymodesissystematicallyevaluated.TheresultsshowthatskillfulpredictionshavebeenmadeforENSO,MJO,theIndianOceanbasinmode,theWPSH,andpartlyfortheEASM,whereaslessskillfulpredictionsweremadefortheIndianOceanDipole(IOD)andNorthAtlanticSSTTripole,andnoclearskillatallfortheAO,subtropicalIOD,andEAWM.ImprovementsinthepredictionoftheseclimatevariabilitymodeswithlowskillneedtobeachievedbyimprovingtheBCC'sclimatemodels,developingphysicallybasedstatisticalmodelsaswellascorrectionmethodsformodelpredictions.Someofthemonitoring/predictionproductsoftheBCC-CPPSarealsointroducedinthispaper.

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简介：在东亚上的气候的15年的模拟与模型RegCM3在单程的模式嵌套到ERA40重新分析数据的地区性的气候的最近的版本被进行。在在东亚和中国上模仿现在的气候的themodel的表演被调查。结果证明RegCM3能在东亚上复制大气的发行量很好。在中国和他们的季节的周期/进化上的表面空气温度和降水的主要分发模式的模拟，基本上同意观察的。同时，一般冷偏爱在模拟被发现。至于降水，当时，模型趋于在北中国过高估计降水在南部的中国低估它，特别地在冬季。一般来说，模型在比降水模仿温度有更好的性能。

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简介：Climatesystemmodelsareusefultoolsforunderstandingtheinteractionsamongthecomponentsoftheclimatesystemandpredicting/projectingfutureclimatechange.ThedevelopmentofclimatemodelshasbeenacentralfocusoftheStateKeyLaboratoryofNumericalModelingforAtmosphericSciencesandGeophysicalFluidDynamics,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences(LASG/IAP)sincetheestablishmentofthelaboratoryin1985.InChina,manypioneeringcomponentmodelsandfullycoupledmodelsoftheclimatesystemhavebeendevelopedbyLASG/IAP.ThefullycoupledclimatesystemdevelopedintherecentdecadeisnamedFGOALS(FlexibleGlobalOcean-Atmosphere-LandSystemModel).Inthispaper,anapplication-orientedreviewoftheLASG/IAPFGOALSmodelispresented.Theimprovedmodelperformancesaredemonstratedinthecontextofcloud-radiationprocesses,Asianmonsoon,ENSOphenomena,AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation(AMOC)andseaice.TheFGOALSmodelhascontributedtobothCMIP5(CoupledModelIntercomparisonProject-phase5)andIPCC(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange)AR5(theFifthAssessmentReport).ThereleaseofFGOALSdatahassupportedthepublicationofnearly500papersaroundtheworld.TheresultsofFGOALSarecited~106timesintheIPCCWG1(WorkingGroup1)AR5.Inadditiontothetraditionallong-termsimulationsandprojections,near-termdecadalclimatepredictionisanewsetofCMIPexperiment,progressofLAGS/IAPinthedevelopmentofneartermdecadalpredictionsystemisreviewed.TheFGOALSmodelhassupportedmanyChinesenational-levelresearchprojectsandcontributedtothenationalclimatechangeassessmentreport.ThecrucialroleofFGOALSasamodelingtoolforsupportingclimatesciencesishighlightedbydemonstratingthemodel’sperformancesinthesimulationoftheevolutionofEarth’sclimatefromthepasttothefuture.

简介：ClimateeffectsoflandusechangeinChinaassimulatedbyaregionalclimatemodel(RegCM2)areinvestigated.Themodelisnestedinone-waymodewithinaglobalcoupledatmosphere-oceanmodel(CSIROR21L9AOGCM).Twomulti-yearsimulations,onewithcurrentlanduseandtheotherwithpotentialvegetationcover,areconducted.Statisticallysignificantchangesofprecipitation,surfaceairtemperature,anddailymaximumanddailyminimumtemperatureareanalyzedbasedonthedifferencebetweenthetwosimulations.ThesimulatedeffectsoflandusechangeoverChinaincludeadecreaseofmeanannualprecipitationoverNorthwestChina,aregionwithaprevalenceofaridandsemi-aridareas;anincreaseofmeanannualsurfaoeairtemperatureoversomeareas;andadecreaseoftemperaturealongcoastalareas.Summermeandailymaximumtemperatureincreasesinmanylocations,whilewintermeandailyminimumtemperaturedecreasesinEastChinaandincreasesinNorthwestChina.TheuppersoilmoisturedecreasessignificantlyacrossChina.Theresultsindicatethatthesamelandusechangemaycausedifferentclimateeffectsindifferentregionsdependingonthesurroundingenvironmentandclimatecharacteristics.

简介：ＳＨＯＲＴ－ＴＥＲＭＣＬＩＭＡＴＥＣＨＡＮＧＥＡＮＤＩＴＳＣＡＵＳＥＡＮＤＣＬＩＭＡＴＥＰＲＥＤＩＣＴＩＯＮＩＮＣＨＩＮＡ￥ＷｅｉＦｅｎｇｙｉｎｇ（魏凤英）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＳｙｎｏｐｔｉｃａｎｄＤｙｎａｍｉｃＭｅｔｅｏｒｏｌｏｇｙ．）Ｂｅｉｊ...

简介：Anewcoupledclimatesystemmodel(CSM)hasbeendevelopedattheChineseAcademyofMeteorologicalSciences(CAMS)byemployingseveralstate-of-the-artcomponentmodels.ThecoupledCAMS-CSMconsistsofthemodifiedatmosphericmodel[ECmwf-HAMburg(ECHAM5)],oceanmodel[ModularOceanModel(MOM4)],seaicemodel[SeaIceSimulator(SIS)],andlandsurfacemodel[CommonLandModel(CoLM)].Adetailedmodeldescriptionispresentedandboththepre-industrialand“historical”simulationsarepreliminarilyevaluatedinthisstudy.Themodelcanreproducetheclimatologicalmeanstatesandseasonalcyclesofthemajorclimatesystemquantities,includingtheseasurfacetemperature,precipitation,seaiceextent,andtheequatorialthermocline.ThemajorclimatevariabilitymodesarealsoreasonablycapturedbytheCAMS-CSM,suchastheMadden-JulianOscillation(MJO),ElNi?o-SouthernOscillation(ENSO),EastAsianSummerMonsoon(EASM),andPacificDecadalOscillation(PDO).ThemodelshowsapromisingabilitytosimulatetheEASMvariabilityandtheENSO-EASMrelationship.Somebiasesstillexist,suchasthefalsedouble-intertropicalconvergencezone(ITCZ)intheannualmeanprecipitationfield,theoverestimatedENSOamplitude,andtheweakenedBjerknesfeedbackassociatedwithENSO;andthustheCAMS-CSMneedsfurtherimprovements.

简介：Thisarticleexaminesthekeypointsofcontroversyandtheprospectsforthepost-Copenhagenglobalclimatechangenegotiations.WhiletheEuropeansandtheU.S.trytoabandontheprinciplesoftheKyotoProtocolafter2012,thedevelopingcountrieswillstrivetomakethedevelopedcountriescontinuetoacceptdifferentiatedresponsibilitiesorobligations.TheprospectsofreachinganewlegallybindinginternationalagreementonemissionsreductionintheCancunorSouthAfricasummitsmaybediminishing.

简介：Actiontocombatclimatechangeisbecomingevermoreessential,especiallyasnationslooktowardtheirfuturesinanincreasinglycompetitiveworld.Countriesvieforobtainingthelargestreductionincarbonemissionswhiletheneedforcooperationisalsotakingonever-greaterurgency.Chinahassofaractively,solidlyanddiligentlydemonstrateditsresponsibleimagetowardsclimatechange,apointwhichshouldbeunderstoodandrecognizedbythedevelopedworld.

简介：ＥＮＶＩＲＯＮＭＥＮＴＡＮＤＣＬＩＭＡＴＥＣＨＡＮＧＥＩＮＣＨＩＮＡ￥ＺｈｏｕＸｉｕｊｉ（周秀骥），ＣｈｅｎＬｏｎｇｘｕｎ（陈隆勋），ＬｉＷｅｉｌｉａｎｇ（李维亮）ａｎｄＬｉＸｉａｏｗｅｎ（李晓文）ＥＮＶＩＲＯＮＭＥＮＴＡＮＤＣＬＩＭＡＴＥＣＨＡＮＧ...

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简介：格林气候资金(GCF)在最近的年里是在气候上的联合国框架习惯下面的顶点改变的世界气候(UNFCCC)的核心问题之一。然而，GCF没顺利，并且当前进行为筹集并且散布资金没有令人满意的计划。这份报纸首先讨论怎么在附属建筑II国家之中资助GCF。它介绍妥协(PSC)接近基于环境责任和经济能力的偏爱分数，与象为象为经济能力的指示物的环境责任和GDP的指示物的历史的排出物。结果证明美国和欧盟是到GCF的二个最大的贡献者，赞助超过80%资金。第二，我们讨论怎么在非附属建筑II聚会之中分配资金。改编需要(一)途径，考虑经济力量和气候损坏，被建议达到GCF的改编目的，并且结果表明有气候危险的高水平的非洲的国家能得到大多数资金，与几乎30%的份额。关于GCF的缓解目的，这研究介绍二条途径：碳减小贡献(CC)途径和增长费用(IC)来临。两条途径能在非附属建筑II聚会在碳排出物完成重要减小，而后者可以提供有限改编金融，但是导致更多的缓解效果。这篇论文也开发一个方法联合消退效率和改编公平GCF，和我们与在AN和CC之间的一个相等的裂口发现那(或andIC)途径，美金1000亿的数量能资助1613MtCO的排出物减小2(2477MtCO2),当分配美金16时(或美金9)为在非附属建筑II聚会的改编人均。建议的计划可能为以后支持GCF的发展是有用的。

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简介：Theconsequencesofglobalclimatechangepresentaseriousstrategicchallengeinoneofthemostremotepartsoftheworld.TheTibetanPlateauisthelargesthigh-altitudelandmassonearth,withmorethan45,000glaciersthatfeedthemajorriversystemsinAsia,which,inturn,support40percentoftheworld’spopulation.Temperaturesintheregionarerisingtwiceasfastastheglobalaverage,posingseriousriskstohydrologicalsystems,agriculture,andcriticalinfrastructure.Lookingatregionalcooperationthroughthelensofecologicalsecurityraisesimportantquestionsabouttheextenttowhichthethreatoflarge-scaleclimate-relateddisastercouldtriggernewformsofcooperativeaction.Thesoberingrealityisthatcurrentresponsesfallfarshortofensuringamutuallysecurefuture.

简介：Someconsequencesofglobalwarmingareunambiguously1)bad.Risingsealevelscan’tdoanybodyanygood.Norcanhighertemperaturesinhotterbitsoftheworld.ButthewarmingoftheArcticisnotquitesoclear-cut.Mostpeoplefearit,butsomemayseereasontowelcomeit.2)

简介：The21stConferenceofthePartiestotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeandthe11thConferenceofthePartiestotheKyotoProtocol（theParisConferenceonClimateChange）openedinParisonNov.30,2015.AsamemberoftheChinaNGONetworkforInternationalExchanges（CNIE）delegation,Iattendedthefirst-weekactivitiesfromNov.30toDec.4.

简介：把Niya节的地质的记录基于多索引的合成研究，它具有在Tarim盆的南部的边缘的高分辨率，和在南部的Xinjiang的另外的地质的记录，这篇论文重建了自从大约4.00kaBP，paleoclimatic的历史在这个区域变化。在最后4.00ka期间，南部的Xinjiang的区域经历了相对寒冷湿、相对的温暖干燥的时期的引申。三个显著寒冷湿的时期(4.00-3.45kaBP，2.50-1.90kaBP，ca。1.40?1.00kaBP)并且三个温暖干燥的时期(3.45-2.50kaBP，1.90-1.40kaBP，1.00kaBP礼品)被识别。人的活动在南部的Xinjiang与古气候的进化有一种亲密关系，这被显示出。

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