简介：Background:Successionalpaludification,adynamicprocessthatleadstotheformationofpeatlands,isinfluencedbyclimaticfactorsandsitefeaturessuchassurficialdepositsandsoiltexture.Inborealregions,projectedclimatechangeandcorrespondingmodificationsinnaturalfireregimesareexpectedtoinfluencethepaludificationprocessandforestdevelopment.TheobjectiveofthisstudywastoforecastthedevelopmentofborealpaludifiedforestsinnortheasternNorthAmericainrelationtoclimatechangeandmodificationsinthenaturalfireregimefortheperiod2011–2100.Methods:Apaludificationindexwasbuiltusingstatic(e.g.surficialdepositsandsoiltexture)anddynamic(e.g.moistureregimeandsoilorganiclayerthickness)standscalefactorsavailablefromforestmaps.Theindexconsideredtheeffectsofthreetemperatureincreasescenarios(i.e.+1°C,+3°Cand+6°C)andprogressivelydecreasingfirecycle(from300yearsfor2011–2041,to200yearsfor2071–2100)onpeataccumulationrateandsoilorganiclayer(SOL)thicknessatthestandlevel,andpaludificationatthelandscapelevel.Results:Ourindexshowthatinthecontextwhereintheabsenceoffirethelandscapecontinuestopaludify,thenegativeeffectofclimatechangeonpeataccumulationresultedinlittlemodificationtoSOLthicknessatthestandlevel,andnochangeinthepaludificationlevelofthestudyareabetween2011and2100.However,includingdecreasingfirecycletotheindexresultedindeclinesinpaludifiedarea.Overall,theindexpredictsaslighttomoderatedecreaseintheareacoveredbypaludifiedforestsin2100,withslowerratesofpaludification.Conclusions:Slowerpaludificationratesimplygreaterforestproductivityandagreaterpotentialforforestharvest,butalsoagraduallossofopenpaludifiedstands,whichcouldimpactthecarbonbalanceinpaludifiedlandscapes.Nonetheless,asthethickSphagnumlayertypicalofpaludifiedforestsmayprotectsoilorganiclayerfromdroughtanddeepburns,asignificantprop