简介:Inthispaper,aKELM-basedensemblelearningapproach,integratingGrangercausalitytest,greyrelationalanalysisandKELM(KernelExtremeLearningMachine),isproposedfortheexchangerateforecasting.Thestudyusesasetofsixteenmacroeconomicvariablesincluding,import,export,foreignexchangereserves,etc.Furthermore,theselectedvariablesarerankedandthenthreeofthem,whichhavethehighestdegreesofrelevancewiththeexchangerate,arefilteredoutbyGrangercausalitytestandthegreyrelationalanalysis,torepresentthedomesticsituation.Then,basedonthedomesticsituation,KELMisutilizedformedium-termRMB/USDforecasting.TheempiricalresultsshowthattheproposedKELM-basedensemblelearningapproachoutperformsallotherbenchmarkmodelsindifferentforecastinghorizons,whichimpliesthattheKELM-basedensemblelearningapproachisapowerfullearningapproachforexchangeratesforecasting.
简介:Artificialneuralnetworks(ANNs)havebeenwidelyusedasapromisingalternativeapproachforforecasttaskbecauseoftheirseveraldistinguishingfeatures.Inthispaper,weinvestigatetheeffectofdifferentsamplingintervalsonpredictiveperformanceofANNsinforecastingexchangeratetimeseries.Itisshownthatselectionofanappropriatesamplingintervalwouldpermittheneuralnetworktomodeladequatelythefinancialtimeseries.Tooshortortoolongasamplingintervaldoesnotprovidegoodforecastingaccuracy.Inaddition,wediscusstheeffectofforecastinghorizonsandinputnodesonthepredictionperformanceofneuralnetworks.
简介:Thispaperstudiesadynamicmean-varianceportfolioselectionproblemwithrandomliabilityintheaffineinterestrateenvironment,wherethefinancialmarketconsistsofthreeassets:onerisk-freeasset,oneriskyassetandonezero-couponbond.AssumethatshortrateisdrivenbyaffineinterestratemodelandliabilityprocessisdescribedbythedriftedBrownianmotion,inaddition,stockpricedynamicsisaffectedbyinterestratedynamics.Theinvestorsexpecttolookforanoptimalstrategytominimizethevarianceoftheterminalsurplusforagivenexpectedterminalsurplus.TheefficientstrategyandtheefficientfrontierareexplicitlyobtainedbyapplyingdynamicprogrammingprincipleandLagrangedualitytheorem.Anumericalexampleisgiventoillustrateourresultsandsomeeconomicimplicationsareanalyzed.
简介:Adual-ratepreviewcontrolstrategyforatypeofdiscrete-timesystemisproposedbasedonthetheoryofmultiratecontrol.First,byusingthediscreteliftingtechnique,thegeneraldual-ratediscrete-timesystemisconvertedintoasingle-rateaugmentedsystem.Onthisbasis,theaugmentederrorsystemisconstructedbyintroducingafirst-orderdifferenceoperatorandthepreviewablereferencesignal.Thenthetrackingproblemistransformedintoaregulatorproblemoftheaugmentederrorsystem.Theoptimalpreviewcontrollawoftheaugmentederrorsystemisobtainedbyusingstandardlinearquadraticoptimalpreviewcontroltheory,andthentheoptimalpreviewcontrolleroftheoriginalsystemisderived.Inaddition,thenecessaryandsufficientconditionsforthecontrolleraregiven.Finally,simulationresultsshowtheeffectivenessoftheproposedmethod.
简介:Fromtheviewpointofservicelevelagreements,thetransmissionaccuracyrateisoneofcriticalperformanceindicatorstoassessinternetqualityforsystemmanagersandcustomers.Undertheassumptionthateacharc'scapacityisdeterministic,thequickestpathproblemistofindapathsendingaspecificofdatasuchthatthetransmissiontimeisminimized.However,inmanyreal-lifenetworkssuchascomputernetworks,eacharchasstochasticcapacity,leadtimeandaccuracyrate.Suchanetworkisnamedamulti-statecomputernetwork.Underbothassuredaccuracyrateandtimeconstraints,weextendthequickestpathproblemtocomputetheprobabilitythatdunitsofdatacanbesentthroughmultipleminimalpathssimultaneously.Suchaprobabilitynamedsystemreliabilityisaperformanceindicatortoprovidetomanagersforunderstandingtheabilityofsystemandimprovement.Anefficientalgorithmisproposedtoevaluatethesystemreliabilityintermsoftheapproachofminimalpaths.
简介:Thispaperdealswithadiscrete-timeGeo/Geo/1queueingsystemwithworkingbreakdownsinwhichcustomersarriveatthesysteminvariableinputratesaccordingtothestatesoftheserver.Theservermaybesubjecttobreakdownsatrandomwhenitisinoperation.Assoonastheserverfails,arepairprocessimmediatelybegins.Duringtherepairperiod,thedefectiveserverstillprovidesserviceforthewaitingcustomersatalowerservicerateratherthancompletelystoppingservice.Weanalyzethestabilityconditionfortheconsideredsystem.Usingtheprobabilitygeneratingfunctiontechnique,weobtaintheprobabilitygeneratingfunctionofthesteady-statequeuesizedistribution.Also,variousimportantperformancemeasuresarederivedexplicitly.Furthermore,somenumericalresultsareprovidedtocarryoutthesensitivityanalysissoastoillustratetheeffectofdifferentparametersonthesystemperformancemeasures.Finally,anoperatingcostfunctionisformulatedtomodelacomputersystemandtheparabolicmethodisemployedtonumericallyfindtheoptimumservicerateinworkingbreakdownperiod.