简介:Althoughthegreyforecastingmodelhasbeensuccessfullyadoptedinvariousfieldsanddemonstratedpromisingresults,theliteraturesshowitsperformancecouldbefurtherimproved,suchasfortheDGM(1,1)model,basedonaconcavesequence,themodelingerrorwillbelarger.Inthispaper,firstlythedefinitionofsequenceconvexityisgivenout,anditisprovedthattheoutputsequenceofDGM(1,1)modelisaconvexsequence.Next,theresidualchangelawofDGM(1,1)modelbasedontheconcavesequenceisdiscussed,andthenon-equidistanceDGM(1,1)modelisproposed.Finally,byintroducingthesymmetrytransformation,aconcavesequenceistransformedintoaconvexsequence,calledthesymmetricsequenceoftheconcavesequence,andthenconstructthenon-equidistanceDGM(1,1)modelbasedontheconvexsequence.Theexampleresultsshowthatthenovelmethodismoreaccuratethanthedirectmodelingforaconcavesequence.
简介:摘要2016年8月1~3日呼伦贝尔市发生了罕见的高温天气。利用常规观测资料、再分析资料及数值预报等产品分析此次过程中的环流演变和要素场等对高温天气的影响,此次过程中(1)本次高温天气主要是受暖性高压影响,副热带高压北上与大陆暖性高压合并加强,且东南沿海有台风(妮妲)沿偏北路径在华南地区登陆起到了促进暖性高压北抬的作用,使其稳定控制我国广大的北方地区,有利于高温天气的发生。(2)当北方有冷空气南下或有降水时,可以有效地缓解高温天气。(3)地面负变压、低层的低湿以及强下沉气流有利于局地气温的升高。(4)高空稳定的湿度层结,不利于对流天气的发生,有利于温度的维持和升高。(5)在自动站的高空,风随高度顺转表明高空有暖平流,有利于气温的上升。
简介:摘要利用祁连山区9站1960~2004年45年冬季最大冻土资料,分析了祁连山区冬季冻土的时间变化及影响因素,并对比分析了冻土深年和冻土浅年高空环流特征。结果表明祁连山区冬季最大冻土深度的年际变化呈现逐渐减小趋势,其减小速率为7.11cm/10a,可靠性通过了0.001信度检验;冻土深度与气温是呈反相关关系,冻土深度随气温的升高而减小,气温对祁连山区东部山区影响最为明显,其次是西部山区,影响最小的是中部山区;冻土深年,新疆脊较正常年份强,且偏西,高空气温较正常年份高,而OLR较正常年份强;冻土浅年,新疆脊较正常年份弱,气温较正常年份低,OLR较正常年份弱。
简介:EllipticPDE-constrainedoptimalcontrolproblemswithL^1-controlcost(L^1-EOCP)areconsidered.TosolveL^1-EOCP,theprimal-dualactiveset(PDAS)method,whichisaspecialsemismoothNewton(SSN)method,usedtobeapriority.However,ingeneralsolvingNewtonequationsisexpensive.Motivatedbythesuccessofalternatingdirectionmethodofmultipliers(ADMM),weconsiderextendingtheADMMtoL^1-EOCP.TodiscretizeL^1-EOCP,thepiecewiselinearfiniteelement(FE)isconsidered.However,differentfromthefinitedimensionalL^1-norm,thediscretizedL^1-normdoesnothaveadecoupledform.Toovercomethisdifficulty,aneffectiveapproachisutilizingnodalquadratureformulastoapproximatelydiscretizetheL^1-normandL^2-norm.Itisprovedthattheseapproximationstepswillnotchangetheorderoferrorestimates.Tosolvethediscretizedproblem,aninexactheterogeneousADMM(ihADMM)isproposed.DifferentfromtheclassicalADMM,theihADMMadoptstwodifferentweightedinnerproductstodefinetheaugmentedLagrangianfunctionintwosubproblems,respectively.Benefitingfromsuchdifferentweightedtechniques,twosubproblemsofihADMMcanbeefficientlyimplemented.Furthermore,theoreticalresultsontheglobalconvergenceaswellastheiterationcomplexityresultso(1/k)forihADMMaregiven.Inordertoobtainmoreaccuratesolution,atwo-phasestrategyisalsopresented,inwhichtheprimal-dualactiveset(PDAS)methodisusedasapostprocessoroftheihADMM.Numericalresultsnotonlyconfirmerrorestimates,butalsoshowthattheihADMMandthetwo-phasestrategyarehighlyefficient.
简介:Thispaperconsidersadiscrete-timeGeo/G/1queueinamulti-phaseserviceenvironment,wherethesystemissubjecttodisastrousbreakdowns,causingallpresentcustomerstoleavethesystemsimultaneously.Atafailureepoch,theserverabandonstheserviceandthesystemundergoesarepairperiod.Afterthesystemisrepaired,itjumpstooperativephaseiwithprobabilityqi,i=1,2···,n.Usingthesupplementaryvariabletechnique,weobtainthedistributionforthestationaryqueuelengthatthearbitraryepoch,whicharethenusedforthecomputationofotherperformancemeasures.Inaddition,wederivetheexpectedlengthofacycletime,thegeneratingfunctionofthesojourntimeofanarbitrarycustomer,andthegeneratingfunctionoftheserver’sworkingtimeinacycle.Wealsogivetherelationshipbetweenthediscrete-timequeueingsystemtoitscontinuous-timecounterpart.Finally,someexamplesandnumericalresultsarepresented.
简介:摘要自动放球系统是常规高空气象观测系统的关键辅助设备。其主要应用于高空气象观测业务中气球的自动施放。随着我国气象业务现代化建设步伐加快,为更好的实现高空气象观测业务操作自动化,我国一些气象台站开始逐步推行GPF1型自动放球系统的运用。本文主要依据GPF1型自动放球系统试运行的具体情况,首先概况了GPF1型自动放球系统操作流程,接着阐述了GPF1型自动放球系统在业务试运行期间出现的问题进行分析,并给出了解决方法,以供同行参考。