Theprobabilityofearthquakeoccurrenceintheforthcoming50yearsintheareaconfinedbyLinfen,Taiyuan,andDaixianbasins,ShanxiProvinceiscomputedbyusingadualPoissonmodelandthefutureseismicriskisalsocomputedbyusingaprobabilitydistributionintegratedwiththeattenuationlaw.