简介:Using1°×1°finalanalysis(FNL)datafromtheNationalCentersforEnvironmentalPrediction(NCEP),precipitationdatafromtheTropicalRainfallMeasuringMission(TRMM)andthebest-tracktropicalcyclone(TC)datasetprovidedbytheJapanMeteorologicalAgency(JMA)forJune-Augustof2000-2009,wecomprehensivelyconsiderthetwofactorslow-levelmoisturechannelandinteractionbetweenTCsandmid-latitudesystemsandimplementastatisticalanalysisofremoteprecipitationinEastAsiatothenorthof0°andtothewestof150°E.48casesofremoteprecipitationoccurredinthisperiod,whicharecategorizedintofiveclasses.Afteracompositeanalysisofthedifferentclasses,themainsystemsat850hPaand500hPathatimpacttheremoteprecipitationareasfollows:TC,mid-latitudetrough,subtropicalhighandwatervaporchannel.Inparticular,thewatervaporchannelwhichusuallyconnectswithIndianmonsoonhasthemostsignificantimpactonremoteheavyrainfall.Anotherimportantfactoristhemid-latitudetrough.Thetypeofnorthtrough/vortex-southTCremoteprecipitationeventshappenmostfrequently,accountingfor68.8%ofthetotalincidence.MostremoteprecipitationeventsoccurontherightsideoftheTCpath(representing71%ofthetotalnumber).At200hPa,theremoteprecipitationeventsusuallyoccurontherightrearportionofahigh-altitudejetstream,andthereisananti-cyclonicvortextotheeastandwestoftheTCs.Whenthereisnoanti-cyclonicvortextotheeastoftheTC,theTCisrelativelyweak.WhentheremoteprecipitationoccurstothenorthwestoftheTCandthereisatroughinthenorthwestdirection,theTCisrelativelystrong.NumericalexperimentsarecarriedoutusingWeatherResearchandForecast(WRF)model.TheresultsshowsthattheTCplaysamainroleinproducingtheheavyprecipitationandresultsintheenhancementofprecipitationbyimpactingthewatervaporchannel.
简介:利用据历史文献中汉代以来的旱涝灾害记载重建的逐年旱涝等级,结合已重建的东部地区干湿指数序列,通过定义判别历史时期极端旱涝事件的标准,分华北、江淮和江南3个区域辨识了过去2000年的重大旱涝事件。结果表明,各个区域的重大旱、涝多发时段分别是:华北地区出现在100~150年、550~650年、1050~1100年与1850~1900年;江淮地区出现在250~450年与1600~1850年;江南出现在350~400年、1100~1200年与1900~1950年。整个东部地区则出现在100~150年、250~350年、750~850年、950~1000年、1050~1150年、1400~1450年、1550~1650年及1800~1950年。20世纪后50年极端旱涝事件的发生频率和强度仅处于过去2000年的平均水平。过去2000年中国东部温度与旱涝关系的对比分析还表明,20世纪后半叶的气候变暖并未导致极端旱涝事件的发生频率明显增加。
简介:利用江苏南京、安徽宣城两地的水稻田间试验数据和气象资料,对ORYZA2000模型基本作物参数进行调整,包括不同发育阶段的发育速率、干物质分配系数、比叶面积等。两试验点的作物营养生长参数(DVRJ)和生殖生长参数(DVRR)差异很大,反应了模型的区域差异性。模拟效果均能准确反应叶面积指数、生物量的动态变化过程,在地上部生物量的模拟准确度最高。两试验点的叶面积指数、地上部生物量、绿叶生物量、茎生物量和穗生物量的归一化均方根NSMSE值分别为9%、19%、18%、13%、25%和16%、25%、17%、19%、24%,因而南京试验点的模拟效果比宣城好,参数更具区域适应性。
简介:Netprimaryproduction(NPP)ofcroprepresentsthecapacityofsequestratingatmosphericCO_2inagro-ecosystem,anditplaysanimportantroleinterrestrialcarboncycling.BylinkingtheCrop-CmodelwithclimatechangescenarioprojectedbyacoupledGCMFGOALSviageographicalinformationsystem(GIS)techniques,cropNPPinChinawassimulatedfrom2000to2050.ThenationalaveragedsurfaceairtemperaturefromFGOALSisprojectedtoincreaseby1.0℃overthisperiodandthecorrespondingatmosphericCO_2concentrationis535ppmby2050undertheIPCCAIBscenario.Withaspatialresolutionof10×10km~2,modelsimulationindicatedthatanannualaverageincreaseof0.6TgCyr~(-1)(Tg=10~(12)g)wouldbepossibleundertheAIBscenario.TheNPPinthelate2040swouldincreaseby5%(30TgC)withinthe98×10~6hm~2croplandareaincontrastwiththatintheearly2000s.AfurtherinvestigationsuggestedthatchangesintheNPPwouldnotbeevenlydistributedinChina.AhigherincreasewouldoccurinamajorityofregionslocatedineasternandnorthwesternChina,whileaslightreductionwouldappearinHebeiandTianjininnorthernChina.ThespatialcharacteristicsofthecropNPPchangeareattributedprimarilytotheunevendistributionoftemperaturechange.