简介:LakesinTibetPlateauwithlittleeffectsofhumanactivitiesserveasimportantindicatorsofclimatechange.ThisstudyanalysedremotesensingdataandlongtermclimatevariablestoexaminethehydrologicalresponseoflakesinNamCoBasin.TheareachangesoflakeswereextractedbyLandsatTM/ETM+andanalysedbySRTM3DEM.AndtheICESatelevationdatabetween2003and2009wereusedtoobservethelakeleveloftheNamCoLake.Theresultsshowthatthenumberofnewformedglacierlakesincreasedby36%andtheareaofglacierlakesincreasedby36.7%(0.97km~2)from1991to2011.Atthesametime,thesurfaceareaoftheNamCoLakeexpandedby3.71%(72.64km~2)oftheoriginalsizein1991,withatendencyvalueof3.63km~2peryear.ThelakeleveloftheNamCoLakeshowsanincreasetendencyof0.24mperyearduring2003–2009.Thesevariationsappeartoberelatedtoanincreaseinmeanannualtemperatureof0.06oCperyear,andanincreaseinannualprecipitationof2.1mmperyearinsummerinthelasttwodecades.Theincreasednumberoflakesandincreasedareaofglaciallakesreachedapeakatanaltitudeof5500–5600ma.s.l..Thenumberofnewformedglacierlakesandtheareaofglacierlakestendtohigheraltitudes.ClimatechangehasanimportantimpactonthevariationoftheglacierlakesandtheNamCoLake.
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简介:模型的验证是指对模型的性能指标(区分度、校准度)进行考察的过程。根据考察过程中是否使用预测模型的开发队列数据,模型验证可分为内部验证和外部验证。内部验证是检验模型开发过程的可重复性,常见形式包括随机拆分验证、交叉验证、Bootstrap重抽样以及“内部-外部”交叉验证。外部验证考察的是模型的可移植性和可泛化性,常见形式包括时段验证、空间验证以及领域验证。
简介:资本资产定价模型(CAPM)和套利定价理论(APT)是关于资本市场均衡的两个比较著名的模型。二种模型虽然在解释的角度、基本很设、方法、以及适用范围上均有重大区别,但是殊途同归,它们得出的结论是一致的:期望收益与风险之间存在着正相关的关系。