简介：冰期中并非总是稳定的寒冷气候,而是有相当强烈的气候振荡。这是近20年来古气候研究的一个重要发现。1990年代初,对格陵兰冰盖钻探取得了新的成果,在接近冰盖顶峰钻取了两个冰芯,一个以欧洲国家为主的GRIP（GreenlandIce-CoreProject）[1],

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简介：ThreesamplingcrosssectionsalongthesouthpathstartingfromtheTropicsthroughthevaporpassageintheYunnan-GuizhouPlateautothemiddle-lowreachesoftheYangtzeRiver,thenorthpathfromWestChina,viaNorthChina,toJapanunderthewesterlies,andtheplateaupathfromSouthAsiaovertheHimalayastothenorthernTibetanPlateau,aresetup,basedontheIAEA(InternationalAtomicEnergyAgency)/WMOglobalsurveynetworkandsamplingsitesontheTibetanPlateau.Thevariations,andtherelationshipwithprecipitationandtemperature,oftheδ18Oinprecipitationalongthethreecrosssectionsareanalyzedandcompared.Alongthesouthpath,theseasonaldifferencesofmeanδ18OinprecipitationaresmallatthestationslocatedintheTropics,butincreasemarkedlyfromBangkoktowardsthenorth,withtheδ18Ointherainyseasonsmallerthaninthedryseason.Theδ18Ovaluesinprecipitationfluctuateonthewhole,whichshowsthattherearedifferentvaporsources.Alongthenorthpath,theseasonaldifferencesofthemeanδ18OinprecipitationforthestationsinthewestofZhengzhouareallgreaterthanintheeastofZhengzhou.Duringthecoldhalfoftheyear,themeanδ18OinprecipitationreachesitsminimumatUrumqiwiththelowesttemperatureduetothewide,coldhighpressureoverMongolia,thenincreasesgraduallywithlongitude,andremainsatroughlythesamelevelatthestationseastwardfromZhengzhou.Duringthewarmhalfoftheyear,theδ18Ovaluesinprecipitationarelowerintheeastthaninthewest,markedlyinfluencedbythesummermonsoonoverEastAsia.Alongtheplateaupath,themeanδ18OvaluesinprecipitationintherainyseasonarecorrespondinglyhighinthesouthernpartsoftheIndiansubcontinent,andthendecreasegraduallywithlatitude.Asharpdepletionofthestableisotopiccompositionsinprecipitationtakesplaceduetotheverystrongrainoutofthestableisotopiccompositionsinvaporintheprocessofliftingoverthesouthernslopeo

简介：基于蒙特卡罗集合预报方法建立了一个北京地面臭氧的集合预报系统,该系统对包括排放源、气象场在内的154个模式输入和参数进行了扰动,共包含了50个集合成员。利用该集合预报系统模拟了北京奥运会期间一次臭氧过程（2008年8月11日～8月13日）,分析了集合预报系统在概率预报,最优集合子集预报以及表征预报可靠性方面的特点。结果表明：与原确定性预报相比,集合预报能为用户提供更加丰富的预报信息,通过概率预报可以提供不同事件发生的概率,对臭氧事件的预报准确率更高。采用最优集合子集预报方式时的臭氧预报均方根误差比原确定性预报低了10%以上。

简介：ThetropicalPacifichasbeguntoexperienceanewtypeofElNio,whichhasoccurredparticularlyfrequentlyduringthelastdecade,referredtoasthecentralPacific(CP)ElNio.Variouscoupledmodelswithdifferentdegreesofcomplexityhavebeenusedtomakereal-timeElNiopredictions,buthighuncertaintystillexistsintheirforecasts.ItremainsunknownastohowmuchofthisuncertaintyisspecificallyrelatedtothenewCP-typeElNioandhowmuchiscommontoboththistypeandtheconventionalEasternPacific(EP)-typeElNio.Inthisstudy,thedeterministicperformanceofanElNio–SouthernOscillation(ENSO)ensemblepredictionsystemisexaminedforthetwotypesofElNio.EnsemblehindcastsarerunforthenineEPElNioeventsandtwelveCPElNioeventsthathaveoccurredsince1950.Theresultsshowthat(1)theskillscoresfortheEPeventsaresignificantlybetterthanthosefortheCPevents,atallleadtimes;(2)thesystematicforecastbiasescomemostlyfromthepredictionoftheCPevents;and(3)thesystematicerrorischaracterizedbyanoverlywarmeasternPacificduringthespringseason,indicatingastrongerspringpredictionbarrierfortheCPElNio.Furtherimprovementstocoupledatmosphere–oceanmodelsintermsofCPElNiopredictionshouldberecognizedasakeyandhigh-prioritytaskfortheclimatepredictioncommunity.

简介：利用2013—2015年廊坊市环境监测数据及同期气象资料,采用相关分析等统计方法,分析廊坊市臭氧浓度的日变化特征、超标规律以及气象因素对其的影响。结果表明：臭氧浓度的日变化特征明显,为＂1谷1峰＂型,每日07：00—08：00左右达到谷值,15：00—16：00达到峰值;臭氧超标只集中出现在春季、夏季与秋季的部分月份,1—3月、11—12月不存在臭氧超标情况,超标现象日变化特征明显,主要出现在11：00—20：00。气象因素对臭氧浓度的影响很大,风向为西南风与东南风时臭氧超标率较高;臭氧超标时,地面天气类型主要为高压后部或高压底部,高空天气类型主要为脊前西北气流或平直西风环流;臭氧浓度与相对湿度呈显著负相关,与温度、日照呈显著正相关。

简介：SurfaceO3concentrationanditsprecursorshavebeenobservedatLongfengshanstation,HeilongjiangProvinceforaperiodofoneyearfromAugust13,1994toJuly30,1995.RelationshipbetweensurfaceO3andthemeteorologicalconditionsduringthisperiodisanalyzedinthisstudy.ObservationresultsshowthatdiurnalvariationofsurfaceO3followsapatternofdouble-peakswithamplitudeof27—28ppbunderfinedaysinsummerandautumn.Althoughthediurnalvariationissmall（14ppb）,itisstilldetectablewhenitisovercast.DiurnalvariationofO3isirregularunderrainydays.SurfaceO3concentrationriseswhenwindspeedstartstoincreaseat0800BT（BeijingTime）from0to6ms-1inautumn,winterandsummer.RelativehighsurfaceO3concentrationisnoticedfrequentlywhenS,SSW,SWandWSWwindareencounteredatthestationduringallseasons.At0800BTand1400BTthesurfaceO3concentrationincreaseswiththeincreaseofglobalradiationaccordinglyduringfinedaysinwinter,springandautumn.DuringfinedaysaveragepeakofO3concentrationinsummeris20ppbhigherthanthatinwinterwhiletheaveragepeakofglobalradiationinsummerisalmosttwiceashighasthatinwinter.TheaveragesurfaceO3concentrationunderfinedaysinautumnatLongfengshanstationis14ppblowerincomparisontotheobservationresultsfromLin’anstationwhereLin’anisataboutthesamelongitudeandlowerlatitude,withsameenvironment,whichismainlycausedbythedifferenceofglobalradiationduetodifferentlatitudesinthesetwoareas(differenceofaveragepeakglobalradiationabout100Wm-2).

简介：AftercompositingthreerepresentativeENSOindices,ElNioeventshavebeendividedintoaneasternpattern(EP)andacentralpattern(CP).ByusingEOF,correlationandcompositeanalysis,therelationshipandpossiblemechanismsbetweenIndianOceanDipole(IOD)andtwotypesofElNiowereinvestigated.IODevents,originatingfromIndo-Pacificscaleair-seainteraction,arecomposedoftwomodes,whichareassociatedwithEPandCPElNiorespectively.TheIODmoderelatedtoEPElNioevents(namedasIOD1)isstrongestatthedepthof50to150malongtheequatorialIndianOcean.Besides,itshowsaquasi-symmetricdistribution,strongerinthesouthoftheEquator.TheIODmodeassociatedwithCPElNio(namedasIOD2)hasstrongestsignalintropicalsouthernIndianOceansurface.Intermsofmechanisms,beforeEPElNiopeaks,anomalousWalkercirculationproducesstronganomalouseasterliesinequatorialIndianOcean,resultinginupwellingintheeast,decreasingseatemperaturethere;acoupleofanomalousanticyclones(strongerinthesouth)formofftheEquatorwherewarmwateraccumulates,andthustheIOD1occurs.WhenCPElNiodevelops,anomalousWalkercirculationisweakerandshiftsitscentertothewest,thereforeanomalouseasterliesinequatorialIndianOceanislessstrong.Besides,theanticyclonesouthofSumatrastrengthens,andthesoutherlieseastofitbringcoldwaterfromhigherlatitudesandnortherlieswestofitbringwarmwaterfromlowerlatitudestothe15°to25°Szone.Meanwhile,thereexistsstrongdivergenceintheeastandconvergenceinthewestpartoftropicalsouthernIndianOcean,makingseatemperaturefallandriseseparately.Therefore,IOD2liesfarthersouth.

简介：ElNioorLaNiamanifestinDecemberoverthePacificandwillserveasanindexfortheforecastingofsubsequentIndiansummermonsoon,whichoccursfromJunetomid-September.Inthepresentarticle,anattemptismadetostudythevariationoflatentheatflux(LHF)overthenorthIndianOceanduringstrongElNioandstrongLaNiaandrelateitwithIndianmonsoonrainfall.DuringstrongElNiotheLHFintensityishigherandassociatedwithhigherwindspeedandlowercloudamount.DuringElNioallIndiarainfallishavinganinverserelationwithLHF.SeasonalrainfallishigherinYY+1(subsequentyear)thanYY(yearofoccurrence).HoweverthereisalaginrainfallduringElNioYY+1fromJunetoJulywhencomparedwiththemonthlyrainfall.

简介：根据GNIP所提供的长江流域多年月平均降水中δD、δ^18O料以及NOAA-CIRES提供的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了长江流域降水稳定同位素与降水量、水汽压、温度和水汽来源之间的关系。结果表明：在平均季节尺度下,长江流域大气降水中δ^18O降水量、水汽压和温度均存在显著的负相关关系,说明该流域降水中δ^18O化存在显著的降水量效应、湿度效应和反温度效应。基于降水中过量氘示踪水汽来源原理,分析了中国长江流域季风区降水中过量氘与阿拉伯海、孟加拉湾和南印度洋3个海区相对湿度的关系,表明中国长江流域的水汽主要来源于上述3个海区,而昆明和成都可能受到其他水汽作用,使其与水汽源区的相对湿度呈正相变化。

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简介：利用空气质量模式系统RAMS-CMAQ模拟分析了2008年8月北京及周边地区近地面O3浓度的时空变化。分析结果表明,模式系统可以较好地模拟污染物以及气象要素的变化特征和区域分布情况;奥运会期间的污染控制对O3浓度的降低有明显的作用,但是在一些有利的气象条件下,O3易达到较高浓度：8月2日、24日14时（北京时间）左右O3浓度都在0.22mg.m^-3以上,其中2日北京地区处于辐合的弱风场中,风速为1.5～2.5m.s^-1,24日则是处于自南向北的有输送作用的风场中,风速为3.5～6.5m.s^-1;污染控制对北京周边地区的效果要好于北京市区。

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简介：利用2012年夏季山西省太原、大同、临汾3个温室气体观测站的近地面O_3及相关前体物NOx、NO2、NO、CO观测数据及同期气象观测资料,分析山西省夏季O_3体积分数与污染状况、O_3的时间变化特征及O_3与其前体物体积分数的相关性,同时分析气温、相对湿度、风速、降水和日照时数等气象因素对O_3体积分数的影响。结果表明：山西太原、大同、临汾3个城市的O_3小时体积分数与日最大8h平均体积分数都有超标情况发生,夏季O_3污染以临汾最严重、大同相对最轻;一日内O_3小时体积分数最大值出现在15：00左右,最小值出现在06：00左右,日变化呈单峰型分布,其中临汾O_3小时体积分数的昼夜变化振幅最大、大同最小;各城市NOx、NO2、NO、CO等前体物体积分数均呈现白天低、夜间高的日变化过程,与O_3日变化呈负相关;气温是影响夏季O_3体积分数的最重要因素,其次为相对湿度,风速贡献最小,夏季O_3体积分数高值多在高温低湿的午后,且太原、临汾O_3体积分数受局地气象因素影响比大同显著。

简介：利用1964-1993年NCEP／NCAR再分析风应力资料和中国科学院大气物理研究所发展的14层热带太平洋环流模式（OGCM），对热带太平洋与E1Nin^~o有关的年际变化进行了研究。首先，分析了西太平洋暖池次表层海温异常（SOTA）与Nin^~o3区海表温度异常（SSTA）的年际变化关系，发现在E1Nin^~o事件之前，暖池的次表层海温都有明显正异常出现，它的东传导致了E1Nin^~o的发生，并且SOTA的传播随纬度变化，沿赤道东传，在赤道外西传。然后，选取了20世纪70年代和80年代两次最强的E1Nin^~o事件讨论了引起这种机制的可能原因——西风异常的作用。最后，对1964-1993所有的E1Nin^~o年的风场、次表层海温和海表温度的异常进行了综合分析。

简介：Fivesetsofmodelsensitivityexperimentsareconductedtoinvestigatetheinfluenceoftropicalcyclone(TC)genesislocationandatmosphericcirculationoninterannualvariabilityofTCintensityinthewesternNorthPacific(WNP).Ineachexperiment,bogusTCsareplacedatdifferentinitiallocations,andsimulationsareconductedwithidenticalinitialandboundaryconditions.Inthefirstthreeexperiments,thespecifiedatmosphericandSSTconditionsrepresentthemeanconditionsofElNio,LaNia,andneutralyears.TheothertwoexperimentsareconductedwiththespecifiedatmosphericconditionsofElNioandLaNiayearsbutwithSSTsexchanged.ThemodelresultssuggestthatTCsgeneratedinthesoutheasternWNPincurredmorefavorableenvironmentalconditionsfordevelopmentthanTCsgeneratedelsewhere.ThedifferentTCintensitiesbetweenElNioandLaNiayearsarecausedbydifferenceinTCgenesislocationandlow-levelvorticity(VOR).VORplaysasignificantroleintheintensitiesofTCswiththesamegenesislocationsbetweenElNioandLaNiayears.