简介:Weinvestigatetheroleofcloudsandradiationinthegeneralcirculationoftheatmosphereusingamodeldesignedfor30-daypredictions.Comprehensiveverificationsof30-daypredictionsforthe500hPageo-potentialheightfieldhavebeencarriedout,usingthedatafromECMWFobjectiveanalysesthatcovertheperiodfromMay5toJune3,1982.Weperformthreemodelsimulations,includingexperimentswithinterac-tivecloudformation,withoutclouds,andwithoutradiativeheating.Thelattertwoexperimentsallowustostudytheeffectsofcloud/radiationinteractionsandfeedbacksonthepredictedverticalvelocity,andthemeridionalandzonalwindprofiles,averagedovera30-dayperiod.WedemonstratethattheHadleycirculationismaintainedbythepresenceofclouds.Theradiativecoolingintheatmosphereintensifiestheverticalmotioninlowlatitudesand,tosomeextent,alsostrengthenstheoverallmeridionalcirculation.Themeridionalwindsarecorrectlyreproducedinthemodelifcloudsareincorporated.Thezonalwindsaresignificantlyaffectedbycloudsandradiativecooling.Withoutanappropriateincor-porationofthesephysicalelements,themodelresultswoulddeviatesignificantlyfromobservations.Thepresenceofcloudsstrengthensthewesterliesinmiddleandhighlevels.InMay,thenortherlymovementofthejetstreamovereasternAsiais,inpart,associatedwiththepresenceofclouds.
简介:ADVANCESINTHEMONTHLY,SEASONALANDYEARLYLONG-RANGENUMERICALWEATHERPREDICTION¥ZhengQinglin(郑关林)ADVANCESINTHEMONTHLY,SEASONALANDY...
简介:韦伯斯特和杨季风索引(WYI)—在第850a200hPa之间的带的风切变根据NCEP/NCAR分析数据计算、修改。在分析150-100和200hPa的发行量和分叉地以后,然而,我们发现200-hPalevel不能反映亚洲夏季风,特别特征和变化的upper-tropospheric发行量的真实变化热带在东方是upper-tropospheric发行量的最重要的特征的喷气。比U_(850)-U_(200),并且这样大的带的风切变U_(850)-U_((150+100))is大部分它能更适当地反映季风的力量。另外,分叉在150hPa而非200hPa是最大的,因此在上面对流层的罐头的150hPa反映联合季风系统。因此,WYI是重新定义的asDHI,即,I_(DH)=U_(850)~*-U_((150+100))~*,它能在亚洲描绘带的风切变的中心的紧张的可变性不仅,而且在上面、更低的对流层的季风系统。DHI比在展示它在那里显示的Asiansummer季风的长期的变化的WYI优异是明显的内部在亚洲夏季风和气候的十的变化突然的变化发生在1980。亚洲夏季风在第1980a前是更强壮的它由于变弱在然后以后变弱在150-100hPa的层在东方,当时在200hPa在东方没显著地变弱。在气候以后跳年一般来说,在在亚洲削弱的上面的对流层在东方,显示变弱夏季风;land-seapressure差别和热差别减少了,导致变弱季风;相应上面的分叉以及水汽运输在印度半岛,中央印度支那半岛,诺思中国,和东北中国减少了,显示也变弱夏季风。在学习茶碱紧张和亚洲夏季风的长期的变化的NCEP/NCAR和ERA-40分析数据之间的差别也为参考最后被比较。
简介:识别北半球(NH)温度重建和仪器的数据过去的1000年证明气候在最后千年includeslong术语趋势和各种各样的摆动变化。二个长期的趋势和quasi-70-year摆动在全球温度系列被检测最后140年和NH千年系列。一个重要特征被强调那温度慢慢地减少,但是它基于不同系列的分析很快增加。好处能从理解各种各样的长期的趋势和摆动气候变化被获得。从自然气候系统和非线性的模型系统的时间序列的千年的温度代理在理解自然气候变化并且认识到由使用小浪的方法的潜在的好处转变分析被使用。从主要摆动在数值解释包含了在上的数字当模特儿的表演的结果内部十的时间规模与自然代理的一致。看起来,在气候变化的这些摆动直接没作为外部强迫与太阳辐射被连接。这调查可以断定在interdecadaltimescale的气候可变性强烈在气候系统取决于内部非线性的效果。
简介:Haze-to-fogtransformationduringalonglasting,lowvisibilityepisodewasexaminedusingtheobservationsfromacomprehensivefieldcampaignconductedinNanjing,Chinaduring4-9December2013.Inthisepisode,hazewastransformedintofogandthefoglastedfordozensofhours.Theimpactsofmeteorologicalfactorssuchaswind,temperature(T)andrelativehumidity(RH)onhaze,transitionandfogduringthisepisodewereinvestigated.Resultsrevealedsignificantdifferencesbetweenhazeandfogdays,duetotheirdifferentformationmechanisms.Comparisonwasmadeforboundary-layerconditionsduringhazydays,haze-to-fogdaysandfoggydays.DistributionsofwindspeedandwinddirectionaswellassynopticweatherconditionsaroundNanjinghaddeterminativeimpactsontheoccurrencesandcharacteristicsofhazeandfog.WeakenedsoutherlywindinsouthernNanjingresultedinhighconcentrationofpollutants,andhazeeventsoccurredfrequentlyduringthestudyperiod.Thewindspeedwaslessthan1ms-1inthehazeevent,whichresultedinastableatmosphericconditionandweakdispersionofthepollutants.Theheightofthetemperatureinversionwasabout400mduringtheperiod.Theinversionintensitywasweakandthetemperature-differencewas4℃km-1orlessinhaze,whiletheinversionwasstronger,andtemperature-differencewasabout6℃km-1,approachingtheinversionlayerintensityinthefogevent.HazeeventisstronglyinfluencedbyambientRH.RHvaluesincreased,whichresultedinhazedaysevidentlyincreased,suggestingthatanincreasingfractionofhazeeventsbecausedbyhygroscopicgrowthofaerosols,ratherthansimplybyhighaerosolloading.WhenRHwasabove90%,hazeaerosolsstartedtobetransformedfromhazetofog.Thisstudycallsformoreeffortstocontrolemissionstopreventhazeeventsintheregion.
简介:Inaccordancewithanewcompensationprincipleofdiscretecomputations,thetraditionalmeteo-rologicalglobal(pseudo-)spectralschemesofbarotropicprimitiveequation(s)aretransformedintoperfectenergyconservativefidelityschemes,thusresolvingtheproblemsofbothnonlinearcomputa-tionalinstabilityandincompleteenergyconservation,andraisingthecomputationalefficiencyofthetraditionalschemes.Asthenumericaltestsofthenewschemesdemonstrate,insolvingtheproblemofenergyconser-vationinoperationalcomputations,thenewschemescaneliminatethe(nonlinear)computationalin-stabilityand,tosomeextenteventhe(nonlinear)computationaldivergingasfoundinthetraditionalschemes,Furthercontrastsbetweennewandtraditionalschemesalsoindicatethat,indiscreteopera-tionalcomputations,thenewschemeinthecaseofnondivergenceiscapableofprolongingthevalidin-tegraltimeofthecorrespondingtraditionalscheme,andeliminatingcertainkindofsystematicalcom-putational“climatedrift”,meanwhileincreasingitscomputationalaccuracyandreducingitsamountofcomputation.Theworkingprincipleofthispaperisalsoapplicabletotheproblemconcerningbaroclin-icprimitiveequations.
简介:Withtheseriesofannualandseasonaltemperatureduring1957-2001inDongguan,Guangdong,thestatisticalcharacteristicandpowerspectrumandseculartrendandsuddenchangephenomenaarecomputedinthispaper.Fromtheresultsitisknownthat(1)thetemperatureshaveobviouscharacteristicsofmonsoonclimatebutdonothavenormaldistribution,showingbiaseddistributionofhighorlowkurtosis;(2)overtherecenthalf-century,thetemperaturestendtorise,speciallyinthelast10years,inwhichmeantemperaturehavequicklyascendedbyabout1.5°C,andexceptforthespring,thereweresuddenchangeofseasonaltemperaturerisingfromthe1980'sto1990's,whichreallyreflectedtheinfluenceofdevelopingandopeningandurbanizationonDongguantemperature;(3)exceptforthespring,thetemperatureofotherseasonsshowsomeoscillatoryperiodsinDongguanandsomeofthemalsoincludelong-termvariationtrends.
简介:ATibetanozonelowwasfoundinthe1990saftertheAntarcticozonehole.Whetherthisozonelowhasbeenrecoveringfromthebeginningofthe2000sfollowingtheglobalozonerecoveryisanintriguingtopic.WiththemostrecentmergedTOMS/SBUV(TotalOzoneMappingSpectrometer/SolarBackscatterUltraViolet)ozonedata,theTibetanozonelowanditslong-termvariationduring1979-2010areanalyzedusingastatisticalregressionmodelthatincludestheseasonalcycle,solarcycle,quasi-biennialoscillation(QBO),ENSOsignal,andtrends.TheresultsshowthattheTibetanozonelowmaintainsandmaybecomemoresevereonaverageduring1979-2010,comparedwithitsmeanstateintheperiodsbefore2000,possiblycausedbythestrongerdownwardtrendoftotalozoneconcentrationovertheTibet.Comparedwiththeozonevariationoverthenon-Tibetanregionalongthesamelatitudes,theTibetanozonehasalargerdownwardtrendduring1979-2010,withamaximumvalueof-0.40±0.10DUyr1inJanuary,whichsuggeststhestrengtheningoftheTibetanozonelowincontrasttotherecoveryofglobalozone.RegressionanalysesshowthattheQBOsignalplaysanimportantroleindeterminingthetotalozonevariationovertheTibet.Inaddition,thelong-termozonevariationovertheTibetanregionislargelyaffectedbythethermal-dynamicalproxiessuchasthelowerstratospherictemperature,withitscontributionreachingaround10%ofthetotalozonechange,whichisgreatlydifferentfromthatoverthenon-Tibetanregion.
简介:Thispaperattemptstorevealalong-distance-relayedwatervaportransport(LRWVT)eastofTibetanPlateauanditsimpacts.TheresultsshowthatfromAugusttoOctober,eastofTibetanPlateau,thereexistsauniqueLRWVT,andthewatervaporfromtheSouthChinaSeaandthewesternPacificcanaffecttheSichuanBasin,NorthwestChinaandotherChineseregionsfarfromthetropicalseathroughthisway.FromAugusttoOctober,theprecipitationoftheregioneastofthePlateauiscloselylinkedbothintheintra-annualandinter-annualvariations,andtheLRWVTfromtheSouthChinaSeaandthewesternPacificisanimportantconnectionmechanism.Thelarge-scalecirculationbackgroundoftheLRWVTimpactingtheprecipitationoftheregioneastofthePlateauisasfollows:Athighlevels,theSouthAsianHighisgenerallystrongerthannormalandsignificantlyenhanceswithitsnorthwardadvanceandeastwardextensionovertheregioneastofthePlateau.Atmid-level,abroadlowpressuretroughisoverLakeBalkhashanditssurroundings,andtheWesternPacificSubtropicalHigh(WPSH)isnorthwardandwestwardlocated,andthewesternpartofSichuanBasinandtheeasternpartofNorthwestChinaarelocatedinthewestandnorthwestedgeofWPSH.
简介:根据来自在从1960to2001的上面的黄河盆的23个气象学的车站的吝啬的气温,降水,日照时间,和平底锅蒸发,使用假设的可行性测试技术检测长期的趋势因为主要气候变量被调查了。参量的测试被象规度和错误学期的经常的变化那样的假设限制。Nonparametric测试没有这些另外的假设并且更好在水象学的时间序列被使适应趋势测试。年度、每月的气候的时间序列的Thepossible趋势被使用non-parametricmethod检测,突然的变化以5年的移动被检验了由使用动人的T测试(MTT)平均季节、年度的系列方法,Yamamoto方法,和Mann-Kendall方法。年平均温度在上面的黄河Basinduring由0.8℃增加了的Theresults表演过去的42年。最温暖的中心位于盆的北部分。为年度降水的Thenonlinear趋势在一样的时期期间是否定的。年度降水的衰退中心位于东方部分和盆的中心。在上面的黄河盆的年度降水的Thevariation从1972~1989在过去的42年期间展出了一个增加的趋势并且从1990~2001的一个减少的趋势。为年度日照时间和平底锅蒸发的非线性的趋势也是否定的。他们分别地在过去的42年期间由125.6h和161.3公里减少了。为由使用突然的温暖发生在1980年代末的MTT方法表演的突然的变化的测试。年平均降水的一个突然的变化在中间的1980年代发生了,吝啬的日照时间的一个突然的变化发生在1980年代初。为年平均平底锅蒸发,二个突然的变化发生在1980年代和1990年代初。Yamamoto方法的测试结果证明突然的变化主要在1980年代发生了,并且二个尖锐突然的变化在1985在1981并且为年平均温度为春天平底锅蒸发被测试。根据Mann-Kendallmethod,温度的突然的变化主要发生在1990年代,平底锅蒸发突然的变化主要在1960年代发生了,并且日照时间的突然的变化首�
简介:为2007的模型模拟和水文学分析数据被使用在沿海的东亚上在hydrometeor形成上调查远程的荒芜的灰尘运输的影响。结果从香港和上海被分析,它是东亚的二个代表性的沿海的城市。远程的荒芜的灰尘运输主要在沿海的东亚上影响春天和夏天云和猛冲。在春天,云和猛冲主要来自大规模冷凝作用并且主要被灰尘从Gobi,撒哈拉沙漠,和一种羚羊沙漠影响。这些荒芜的灰尘能参予降水在以内并且在云下面。在更低的纬度,灰尘粒子主要充当水原子核。在更高的纬度,他们充当水原子核和冰原子核。大规模云和猛冲上的Gobi,撒哈拉沙漠,和一种羚羊灰尘的效果在更高的纬度变得更强壮。在夏天,在沿海的东亚上的云和猛冲主要来自传送对流并且主要被灰尘从Taklamakan影响,阿拉伯,并且Karakum-Kavir沙漠。大多数Taklamakan灰尘粒子能作为冰原子核在对流的云以内参予降水,当阿拉伯时,Karakum-Kavir灰尘粒子在云下面在降水仅仅作为水原子核参与。对流的云和猛冲上的Taklamakan灰尘的效果在更低的纬度变得更强壮。所有荒芜的灰尘,那从Gobi和Taklamakan沙漠有相对最大的影响。Gobi灰尘由在更高的纬度影响泉水云在沿海的东亚影响气候变化。
简介:Inthisstudy,weexaminealong-termincreasingtrendinsubtropicalpotentialvorticity(PV)intrusioneventsoverthePacificOceaninrelationtotheglobalmeantemperaturerise,basedonmultiplereanalysisdatasets.ThefrequencyofthePVintrusionsiscloselyrelatedtotheupper-troposphericequatorialwesterlyductandthesubtropicaljet(STJ).AnoverallstrengtheningofthewesterlyductandweakeningoftheSTJarefoundtobedrivenbythewarming-inducedstrengtheningofWalkercirculationandregionalchangesinHadleycirculationonmulti-decadaltimescale,leadingtoanincreaseinthePVintrusionfrequencyoverthetropics.Theresultsarerobustinalldatasets.Themulti-decadalstrengtheninginthePacificWalkercirculationisconsistentwiththeglobalmeantemperaturerise.Inthisway,thePVintrusionsarecorrelatedwiththewarmingrelatedglobalmeantemperuaterise.WhentheinterannualvariabilityofENSOisremovedfromtheintrusiontimeseries,thelong-termtrendinPVintrusionsduetoexternalforcingassociatedwithanthropogenicwarming(globalmeantemperaturerise)becomesclearer.Thelinkbetweentheglobalmeantemperatureriseandintrusionfrequencyisfurtherverifiedbyperformingacorrelationanalysisbetweenthetwo.Thesignificant(>95%)correlationcoefficientis0.85,0.94,0.84,0.83,and0.84forERA-40,ERA-Interim,NCEP-NCAR,JRA-55,andJRA-25,respectively.Thisunequivocallyindicatesthattheglobalmeantemperaturerisecanexplainaround69%–88%ofthevariancerelatedtothelong-termincreaseinPVintrusionfrequencyoverthePacificOcean.
简介:TheprojectionofChina'snear-andlong-termfutureclimateisrevisitedwithanew-generationstatisticallydownscaleddataset,NEX-GDDP(NASAEarthExchangeGlobalDailyDownscaledProjections).Thisdatasetpresentsahigh-resolutionseamlessclimateprojectionfrom1950to2100bycombiningobservationsandGCMresults,andremarkablyimprovesCMIP5hindcastsandprojectionsfromlargescaletoregional-to-localscaleswithanunchangedlong-termtrend.Threeaspectsaresignificantlyimproved:(1)theclimatologyinthepastascomparedagainsttheobservations;(2)morereliablenear-andlong-termprojections,withamodifiedrangeofabsolutevalueandreducedinter-modelspreadascomparedtoCMIP5GCMs;and(3)muchaddedvalueatregional-to-localscalescomparedtoGCMoutputs.NEX-GDDPhasgreatpotentialtobecomeawidely-usedhigh-resolutiondatasetandabenchmarkofmodernclimatechangefordiverseearthsciencecommunities.