简介：Shipcollisionaccidentsarerareeventsbutposehugethreattohumanlives,assets,andtheenvironment.Manyresearchershavesoughtforeffectivemodelsthatcomputeshipstochasticresponseduringcollisionsbyconsideringthevariabilityofshipcollisionscenarioparameters.However,theexistingmodelswerelimitedbythecapabilityofthecollisioncomputationalmodelsanddidnotcompletelycapturecollisionscenario,andmaterialandgeometricuncertainties.Inthispaper,anovelframeworktoperformancecharacterisationofshipsincollisioninvolvingavarietyofstrikingshipsisdeveloped,bycharacterisingthestructuralconsequenceswithefficientresponsemodels.Adouble-hulloilcarrierischosenasthestruckshiptodemonstratetheapplicabilityoftheproposedframework.Responsesurfacetechniquesareemployedtogeneratethemostprobableinputdesignsetswhichareusedtosampleanautomatedfiniteelementtooltocomputethechosenstructuralconsequences.Theresultingpredictor-responserelationshipsarefittedwithsuitablesurrogatemodelstoprobabilisticallycharacterisethestruckshipdamageundercollisions.Asdemonstratedinthispaper,suchmodelsareextremelyusefultoreducethecomputationalcomplexityinobtainingprobabilisticdesignmeasuresforshipstructures.Theproposedprobabilisticapproachisalsocombinedwithavailablecollisionfrequencymodelsfromliteraturetodemonstratetherisktolerancecomputations.