摘要
Thispaperexaminestherelationshipbetweenstockmarket(KSE-100),moneymarket(M2and180daysT-billrate),andforeignexchangemarket(ER:PKR/USD)inPakistanbyusingmonthlydatacoveringtheperiodfrom2000:M1to2015:M12.Thestudyinvestigateslong-runequilibriumrelationshipbetweenthesethreefinancialmarketsbyemployingJohansenandJuselius[1]cointegrationtests.Long-runandshort-runcausalityrelationshipbetweenstockmarketandothermacroeconomicvariablesisalsoestablishedbyemployingvectorerrorcorrectionmodel(VECM)andpairwisegrangercausalitytests.Theresultsofmultivariatecointegrationtest(tracetest)indicateaonecointegratingvector,andthesignificantnormalizedcointegratingcoefficientsareevidentoflongrunequilibriumrelationshipbetweenalltheselectedvariables.NegativeandsignificantECT(-1)forallvariablesduringfullsampleperiodwitnessthepresenceoflong-runcausalityconnectionamongvariables,whileduringthemilitaryregimeanddemocraticregime,significantdifferenceoflong-runcausalconnectionsareidentifiedacrosstheregimes.Moreover,theresultsofgrangercausalitytestalsoindicatethattherearesignificantvariationsinthecausalityrelationshipamongvariablesacrosstheregimes.Therefore,itisessentialforforecasting,planningandpolicymakingtoconsidertheimportanceofpoliticalgovernancesystemwhileanalyzingthehistoricalcointegrationamongfinancialmarketandmakethenecessaryadjustmentsaccordingly.
出版日期
2017年01月11日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
