Projecting South Asian Summer Precipitation in CMIP3 Models： A Comparison of the Simulations with and without Black Carbon-中国期刊网

摘要 Consideringtheimportanceofblackcarbon(BC),thisstudybeganbycomparingthe20thcenturysimulationofSouthAsiansummerclimateinIPCCCMIP3,basedonthescenarioofmodelswithandwithoutBC.Generally,themulti-modelmeanofthemodelsthatincludeBCreproducedtheobservedclimaterelativelybetterthanthosethatdidnot.Then,the21stcenturySouthAsiansummerprecipitationwasprojectedbasedontheIPCCCMIP3projectionsimulations.Theprojectedprecipitationinthepresentapproachexhibitedaconsiderabledifferencefromthemultimodelensemblemean(MME)ofIPCCAR4projectionsimulations,andalsofromtheMMEofthemodelsthatignoretheeffectofBC.Inparticular,thepresentprojectionexhibitedadryanomalyoverthecentralIndianPeninsula,sandwichedbetweenwetconditionsonthesouthernandnorthernsidesofPakistanandIndia,ratherthanhomogeneouswetconditionsasseenintheMMEofIPCCAR4.Thus,thespatialpatternofSouthAsiansummerrainfallinthefuturemaybemorecomplicatedthanpreviouslythought.

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Projecting South Asian Summer Precipitation in CMIP3 Models： A Comparison of the Simulations with and without Black Carbon

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Projecting South Asian Summer Precipitation in CMIP3 Models： A Comparison of the Simulations with and without Black Carbon

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