摘要
BasedonRegCM4,aclimatemodelsystem,wesimulatedthedistributionofthepresentclimate(1961-1990)andthefutureclimate(2010-2099),underemissionscenariosofRCPsoverthewholePearlRiverBasin.Fromtheclimateparameters,asetofmeanprecipitation,wetdayfrequency,andmeanwetdayintensityandseveralprecipitationpercentilesareusedtoassesstheexpectedchangesindailyprecipitationcharacteristicsforthe21stcentury.Meanwhilethereturnvaluesofprecipitationintensitywithanaveragereturnof5,10,20,and50yearsarealsousedtoassesstheexpectedchangesinprecipitationextremeseventsinthisstudy.ThestructureofthechangeacrosstheprecipitationdistributionisverycoherentbetweenRCP4.5andRCP8.5.Theannual,springandwinteraverageprecipitationdecreaseswhilethesummerandautumnaverageprecipitationincreases.Thebasicdiagnosticsofprecipitationshowthatthefrequencyofprecipitationisprojectedtodecreasebuttheintensityisprojectedtoincrease.Thewetdaypercentiles(q90andq95)alsoincrease,indicatingthatprecipitationextremesintensitywillincreaseinthefuture.Meanwhile,the5-yearreturnvaluetendstoincreaseby30%-45%inthebasinsofLiujiangRiver,RedWaterRiver,GuiheRiverandPearlRiverDeltaregion,wherethe5-yearreturnvalueoffutureclimatecorrespondstothe8-to10-yearreturnvalueofthepresentclimate,andthe50-yearreturnvaluecorrespondstothe100-yearreturnvalueofthepresentclimateoverthePearlRiverDeltaregioninthe2080sunderRCP8.5,whichindicatesthatthewarmingenvironmentwillgiverisetochangesintheintensityandfrequencyofextremeprecipitationevents.
出版日期
2016年01月11日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
