摘要
Onthebasisofasimplemodelidentifyingtherelationshipbetweentheagriculturallaborshareintotallaborforceandthedeterminingfactors,suchasnumberofnewparticipatorsto,andthoseleavingfromagricultureandtransferringtonon-farming,thispaperestimatesthecontributionofthedeterminingfactorsforthechangesofagriculturallaborshareduringtheperiod1990～2030.Giventheassumptionabouttheaverageannualdeclineoftheagriculturallaborshareinfuture,thenumberofnewparticipatestoagriculturallaborisestimatedtodeclinefrom20.23millionduring2005～2010to11.42millionduring2010-2030,andthenumbersofleavingandtranferringareestimatedtochangefrom42.20millionand38.43millionto27.04millionand29.49millionrespectivelyduringthesameperiod.Thefactorsofentrance,exitandtransfer,whichcontributetothedeclineoftheagriculturallaborshare,aredescribedtochangefrom-15.1%,34.7%and38.1%respectivelyin2005～2010to-22.6%,54.3%and49.8%in2025～2030.Thenonfarmingjobcreationmaydeclinefrom69.69millionin2005～2010to35.08millionin2025～2030.Thepolicyimplicationsofthefindingarealsodiscussed.
出版日期
2012年06月16日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
