摘要
Constructionprojectschedulingisoneofthemostcriticalfactorsforprojectsuccessmeasurement.Notonlyfortheprojectplanningbutforconstructionprocessmanagement,theschedulingisthebasictoolforcommunicationbetweentheownerandtheprojectmanager.Bydevelopingtheschedulebeforetheprojectstarts,theownerknowsinadvancethattheexpectedtimelineoftheproject.Bypreparingconstructionprocessscheduling,theownerandgeneralcontractorcanbettermanagethesubcontractors,sub-tradesprogress,materialsstorageanddeliveries,laborsscheduleandequipmentsetupwhichwilleventuallysavetime,moneyandhassle.Basically,CriticalPathMethod(CPM)iscommonlyusedintheconstructionindustry.CPMisadeterministicmethodthatassumesthatthroughthenetwork,thereisatleastonepaththatdeterminestheprojectdurationandthatthepathisthecriticalpath.CPMdoesnotconsidertheuncertaintyintheactivities;ratheritassumesthateachactivitycanbefinishedinthegivensituation.ProgramEvaluationandReviewTechnique(PERT)isastochastictechniquewhichisbasedontheassumptionthatthedurationofasingleactivitycanbedescribedbyaprobabilitydensityfunction.PERTtakesintoaccounttheuncertaintyduringtheconstructionprocessandhasbeencreatedoutoftheneedtoplan,scheduleandcontrolcomplexprojectswithmanyuncertainties.ThePERTapproachisstatedinsomebooksandpapers,butthereisnodeepinvestigationontheapplicationinthescheduleriskassessment.ThispaperinvestigatesthePERTworkprocessandtakesavaluabletryontheconstructionscheduleriskassessmentbyusingcasestudies.Theutilizationintheestimatetheconstructionliquidateddamagewiththeuncertaintiesisperformed,whichalsocanbeusedintheinsurancecompanytocalculatetheinsurancepremium.
出版日期
2012年03月13日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
